BUFBills
6-5
34
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
47°F
6 mph
37
PHIEagles
9-1
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
47°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bills
0
17
7
7
3
34
Eagles
7
0
7
17
6
37
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
505
378
Total Plays
92
65
Yards / Play
5.5
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.12
Passing Yards
332
193
Comp/Att
29/51(57%)
18/31(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.00
Rushing Yards
173
185
Rush Attempts
40
32
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.18
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
24
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
13
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
59%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
13
4
3rd Down Attempts
22
11
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.03
-8.76
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-7
Sack EPA
-1.12
-2.51
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
80
30
Penalty EPA
-14.25
-3.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+81
Home nfelo
1,647
Away nfelo
1,623
Home Field
+60.0
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.5
Home QB Adjustment
+8.7
Away QB Adjustment
+12.2
Market Regression
-46.1
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
30
Yards / Game
5
26
Passing Yards / Game
19
32
Rushing Yards / Game
5
11
EPA
EPA / Play
3
30
EPA / Pass
6
29
EPA / Rush
1
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
26
26
Fumbles / Game
15
24
Turnover EPA / Game
22
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
30
4th Down Efficiency
7
25
RZ Efficiency
4
29
Eagles Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
3
Yards / Game
9
8
Passing Yards / Game
10
13
Rushing Yards / Game
9
15
EPA
EPA / Play
7
11
EPA / Pass
10
6
EPA / Rush
6
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
32
Interceptions / Game
24
5
Fumbles / Game
25
3
Turnover EPA / Game
8
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
18
4th Down Efficiency
1
15
RZ Efficiency
9
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Eagles
9-1
SU
6-2-2
ATS
5-5
O/U