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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ eagles week 14, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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BUF logo
BUFBills
6-6
20
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
66°F
3 mph
23
PHIEagles
5-7
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
66°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
3
10
0
20
Eagles
7
10
3
3
23

Spread

PHI logo
-1

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
412
348
Total Plays
69
73
Yards / Play
6.0
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.03
Passing Yards
260
232
Comp/Att
19/36(53%)
23/38(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.13
Rushing Yards
152
116
Rush Attempts
32
34
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
16
18
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-0.51
+1.69
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-15
Sack EPA
-2.26
-1.61
Penalties
15
5
Penalty Yards
101
--
Penalty EPA
-10.98
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,523
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+82.2
Base HFA
+61.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.7
Home QB Adjustment
+0.1
Away QB Adjustment
+11.8
Market Regression
-4.4
Final Difference
24.9
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
Value
Ptile
09/20
-1.9
36
09/27
7.7
93
10/04
-0.0
51
10/11
1.3
61
11/08
0.4
52
11/12
-4.1
20
11/23
-3.2
28
11/29
8.6
95
12/06
6.2
88
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
Value
Ptile
09/14
2.5
68
09/20
-2.9
29
09/27
-4.1
20
10/04
-0.5
47
10/11
3.7
77
10/19
-4.4
18
10/25
-8.0
4
11/08
3.0
73
11/15
-1.3
41
12/06
-1.1
43

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Eagles Defense
Bills logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
12
28
Yards / Game
13
30
Passing Yards / Game
28
31
Rushing Yards / Game
1
32

EPA

EPA / Play
12
17
EPA / Pass
14
16
EPA / Rush
2
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
15
Interceptions / Game
5
10
Fumbles / Game
11
15
Turnover EPA / Game
32
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
26
4th Down Efficiency
24
27
RZ Efficiency
26
31
Eagles Offense vs Bills Defense
Eagles logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
13
15
Yards / Game
12
20
Passing Yards / Game
14
22
Rushing Yards / Game
15
16

EPA

EPA / Play
21
16
EPA / Pass
22
15
EPA / Rush
16
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
11
Interceptions / Game
26
6
Fumbles / Game
30
15
Turnover EPA / Game
2
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
23
4th Down Efficiency
15
1
RZ Efficiency
22
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
27
W
W
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/11
1
W
W
U
10/18
-13
L
L
O
10/25
-3
L
L
O
11/08
16
W
W
O
11/12
5
W
W
U
11/23
-7
L
P
U
11/29
-8
L
L
O
12/06
9
W
W
O
PHI logo

Eagles

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
7
W
W
U
10/04
-3
L
L
U
10/11
22
W
W
O
10/19
20
W
W
U
10/25
-11
L
L
U
11/08
6
W
W
O
11/15
-1
L
L
U
11/22
-28
L
L
O
11/26
-31
L
L
O
12/06
7
W
W
O