BUFBills
6-6
20
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
66°F
3 mph
23
PHIEagles
5-7
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
66°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
3
10
0
20
Eagles
7
10
3
3
23
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
412
348
Total Plays
69
73
Yards / Play
6.0
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.03
Passing Yards
260
232
Comp/Att
19/36(53%)
23/38(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.13
Rushing Yards
152
116
Rush Attempts
32
34
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
16
18
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-0.51
+1.69
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-15
Sack EPA
-2.26
-1.61
Penalties
15
5
Penalty Yards
101
--
Penalty EPA
-10.98
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model53.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+60
Home nfelo
1,523
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+81.3
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.7
Home QB Adjustment
+0.1
Away QB Adjustment
+11.8
Market Regression
-4.7
Final Difference
24.6
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
28
Yards / Game
13
30
Passing Yards / Game
28
31
Rushing Yards / Game
1
32
EPA
EPA / Play
12
17
EPA / Pass
14
16
EPA / Rush
2
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
15
Interceptions / Game
5
10
Fumbles / Game
11
15
Turnover EPA / Game
32
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
26
4th Down Efficiency
24
27
RZ Efficiency
26
31
Eagles Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
15
Yards / Game
12
20
Passing Yards / Game
14
22
Rushing Yards / Game
15
16
EPA
EPA / Play
21
16
EPA / Pass
22
15
EPA / Rush
16
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
11
Interceptions / Game
26
6
Fumbles / Game
30
15
Turnover EPA / Game
2
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
23
4th Down Efficiency
15
1
RZ Efficiency
22
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Eagles
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U