BUFBills
5-9
3
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
031
ATLFalcons
7-7
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
0
3
0
3
Falcons
7
3
8
7
25
Spread
-8
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
178
391
Total Plays
49
75
Yards / Play
3.6
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.54
+0.02
Passing Yards
138
234
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
18/35(51%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.15
Rushing Yards
40
157
Rush Attempts
18
37
Yards / Rush
2.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.63
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
24
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
20%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.77
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-8
-16
Sack EPA
-2.61
-5.28
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
60
70
Penalty EPA
-5.54
-7.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model72.1%
Spread Pick
Bills+8.0
Expected Value
+10.0%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+96
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,429
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-38.6
Home QB Adjustment
-8.3
Away QB Adjustment
+30.3
Market Regression
-24.8
Final Difference
165.2
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
B. Brohm
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+30.3
No recent game data available
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
13
Yards / Game
30
20
Passing Yards / Game
27
22
Rushing Yards / Game
15
9
EPA
EPA / Play
28
14
EPA / Pass
27
24
EPA / Rush
17
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
24
Interceptions / Game
24
16
Fumbles / Game
8
12
Turnover EPA / Game
16
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
32
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
32
16
Falcons Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
14
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
29
7
Rushing Yards / Game
13
31
EPA
EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
11
2
EPA / Rush
13
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
4
Interceptions / Game
18
2
Fumbles / Game
8
30
Turnover EPA / Game
14
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
24
4th Down Efficiency
3
23
RZ Efficiency
13
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U