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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ falcons week 16, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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BUF logo
BUFBills
5-9
3
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
31
ATLFalcons
7-7
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
0
3
0
3
Falcons
7
3
8
7
25

Spread

ATL logo
-8

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
178
391
Total Plays
49
75
Yards / Play
3.6
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.54
+0.02
Passing Yards
138
234
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
18/35(51%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.15
Rushing Yards
40
157
Rush Attempts
18
37
Yards / Rush
2.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.63
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
11
24
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
20%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.77
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-8
-16
Sack EPA
-2.61
-5.28
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
60
70
Penalty EPA
-5.54
-7.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model72.1%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills+8.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.0%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+95
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,425
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-38.6
Home QB Adjustment
-8.3
Away QB Adjustment
+30.3
Market Regression
-24.9
Final Difference
164.8
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

B. Brohm headshot

B. Brohm

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+30.3
No recent game data available
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.3
Value
Ptile
09/27
0.4
53
10/11
9.0
95
10/18
-0.8
45
10/25
-5.2
19
11/02
-5.8
15
11/08
-3.0
31
11/15
-2.2
37
11/22
2.8
68
11/29
-5.6
16
12/20
-0.0
49

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Falcons Defense
Bills logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
28
13
Yards / Game
30
20
Passing Yards / Game
27
22
Rushing Yards / Game
15
9

EPA

EPA / Play
28
14
EPA / Pass
27
24
EPA / Rush
17
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
24
Interceptions / Game
24
16
Fumbles / Game
8
12
Turnover EPA / Game
16
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
32
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
32
16
Falcons Offense vs Bills Defense
Falcons logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
13
14
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
29
7
Rushing Yards / Game
13
31

EPA

EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
11
2
EPA / Rush
13
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
4
Interceptions / Game
18
2
Fumbles / Game
8
30
Turnover EPA / Game
14
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
24
4th Down Efficiency
3
23
RZ Efficiency
13
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-3
L
L
U
10/18
3
W
W
U
10/25
11
W
W
U
11/01
-21
L
L
U
11/15
-24
L
L
O
11/22
-3
L
W
U
11/29
17
W
W
O
12/03
-6
L
L
U
12/13
6
W
W
U
12/20
-7
L
L
U
ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
7
W
W
U
10/25
-16
L
L
O
11/02
-8
L
W
O
11/08
14
W
W
O
11/15
-9
L
L
O
11/22
-3
L
W
O
11/29
3
W
L
U
12/06
-27
L
L
U
12/13
-3
L
W
U
12/20
3
W
W
U