BUFBills
3-6
15
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
74°F
10 mph
18
JAXJaguars
5-4
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
74°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
6
3
6
0
15
Jaguars
3
7
0
8
18
Spread
+8.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
343
312
Total Plays
53
67
Yards / Play
6.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.01
Passing Yards
290
208
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
21/30(70%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.02
Rushing Yards
53
104
Rush Attempts
19
35
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.57
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
19
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
27%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.15
-10.09
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-7
-7
Sack EPA
-3.04
-1.82
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
43
50
Penalty EPA
-4.28
-3.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+184
Home nfelo
1,449
Away nfelo
1,389
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+39.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
-37.8
Market Regression
-8.9
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-37.8
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
24
Yards / Game
30
22
Passing Yards / Game
27
1
Rushing Yards / Game
15
18
EPA
EPA / Play
28
32
EPA / Pass
27
32
EPA / Rush
17
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
7
Interceptions / Game
24
16
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
16
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
31
4th Down Efficiency
19
31
RZ Efficiency
32
24
Jaguars Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
14
Yards / Game
18
19
Passing Yards / Game
13
7
Rushing Yards / Game
9
31
EPA
EPA / Play
16
13
EPA / Pass
20
2
EPA / Rush
1
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
4
Interceptions / Game
4
2
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
15
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
24
4th Down Efficiency
10
23
RZ Efficiency
18
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Jaguars
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U