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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ jaguars week 11, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
3-6
15
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
74°F
10 mph
18
JAXJaguars
5-4
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
74°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
6
3
6
0
15
Jaguars
3
7
0
8
18

Spread

BUF logo
+8.5

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
343
312
Total Plays
53
67
Yards / Play
6.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.01
Passing Yards
290
208
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
21/30(70%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.02
Rushing Yards
53
104
Rush Attempts
19
35
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.57
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
14
19
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
27%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.15
-10.09
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-7
-7
Sack EPA
-3.04
-1.82
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
43
50
Penalty EPA
-4.28
-3.81

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+184
Home nfelo
1,449
Away nfelo
1,389
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+39.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
-37.8
Market Regression
-8.9
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-37.8
Value
Ptile
11/02
2.9
71
11/16
-2.4
31
11/20
-1.1
44
11/30
-4.7
18
12/07
-5.9
11
12/14
3.0
72
12/21
-2.2
34
12/28
-2.7
30
10/25
-3.5
27
11/01
-7.1
11
D. Garrard headshot

D. Garrard

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Value
Ptile
12/28
-1.3
42
09/13
-3.0
30
09/20
-0.3
47
09/27
4.1
76
10/04
10.3
97
10/11
-5.0
21
10/18
0.8
55
11/01
-9.6
3
11/08
3.3
71
11/15
3.6
73

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Bills logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
28
24
Yards / Game
30
22
Passing Yards / Game
27
1
Rushing Yards / Game
15
18

EPA

EPA / Play
28
32
EPA / Pass
27
32
EPA / Rush
17
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
7
Interceptions / Game
24
16
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
16
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
31
4th Down Efficiency
19
31
RZ Efficiency
32
24
Jaguars Offense vs Bills Defense
Jaguars logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
24
14
Yards / Game
18
19
Passing Yards / Game
13
7
Rushing Yards / Game
9
31

EPA

EPA / Play
16
13
EPA / Pass
20
2
EPA / Rush
1
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
4
Interceptions / Game
4
2
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
15
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
24
4th Down Efficiency
10
23
RZ Efficiency
18
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
-13
L
L
P
09/14
-1
L
W
O
09/20
13
W
W
O
09/27
-20
L
L
U
10/04
-28
L
L
O
10/11
-3
L
L
U
10/18
3
W
W
U
10/25
11
W
W
U
11/01
-21
L
L
U
11/15
-24
L
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
-20
L
L
P
09/13
-2
L
W
U
09/20
-14
L
L
O
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/04
20
W
W
O
10/11
-41
L
L
U
10/18
3
W
L
O
11/01
-17
L
L
U
11/08
3
W
L
O
11/15
2
W
W
O