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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ jaguars week 19, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
12-5
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
62°F
6 mph
24
JAXJaguars
13-4
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
62°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
7
3
14
27
Jaguars
0
7
3
14
24

Spread

BUF logo
+1.5

Total

UNDER
51.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
340
359
Total Plays
62
54
Yards / Play
5.5
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.09
Passing Yards
261
205
Comp/Att
28/35(80%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.02
Rushing Yards
79
154
Rush Attempts
26
23
Yards / Rush
3.0
6.7
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
50%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.55
-7.59
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-12
-2
Sack EPA
-2.01
-1.19
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
39
--
Penalty EPA
-5.42
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+50
Home nfelo
1,575
Away nfelo
1,621
Home Field
+59.9
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+31.6
Home QB Adjustment
+24.3
Away QB Adjustment
-7.3
Market Regression
+5.9
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.9
Team Elo Adj
-7.3
Value
Ptile
10/26
1.5
62
11/02
7.7
94
11/09
2.5
69
11/16
12.0
99
11/20
-7.8
6
11/30
1.8
63
12/07
10.9
98
12/14
4.2
78
12/21
-1.8
39
12/28
3.1
73
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.3
Value
Ptile
11/02
1.8
64
11/09
-4.7
19
11/16
0.9
58
11/23
-2.8
30
11/30
0.2
53
12/07
3.2
74
12/14
16.0
100
12/21
5.6
87
12/28
1.6
63
01/04
3.8
77

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Bills logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
3
9
Yards / Game
3
11
Passing Yards / Game
14
24
Rushing Yards / Game
1
1

EPA

EPA / Play
1
6
EPA / Pass
5
6
EPA / Rush
3
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
13
Interceptions / Game
10
1
Fumbles / Game
26
9
Turnover EPA / Game
17
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
21
4th Down Efficiency
6
5
RZ Efficiency
2
25
Jaguars Offense vs Bills Defense
Jaguars logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
6
12
Yards / Game
10
8
Passing Yards / Game
24
1
Rushing Yards / Game
18
28

EPA

EPA / Play
10
19
EPA / Pass
10
9
EPA / Rush
12
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
14
Interceptions / Game
23
10
Fumbles / Game
5
20
Turnover EPA / Game
18
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
25
4th Down Efficiency
16
11
RZ Efficiency
8
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
7
W
W
U
11/09
-17
L
L
U
11/16
12
W
W
O
11/20
-4
L
L
U
11/30
19
W
W
U
12/07
5
W
L
O
12/14
4
W
W
O
12/21
3
W
L
O
12/28
-1
L
L
U
01/04
27
W
W
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
1
W
L
O
11/09
-7
L
L
O
11/16
29
W
W
U
11/23
3
W
W
O
11/30
22
W
W
U
12/07
17
W
W
O
12/14
28
W
W
O
12/21
14
W
W
O
12/28
6
W
W
U
01/04
34
W
W
O