BUFBills
-
17
TBD
MetLife Stadium
77°F
6 mph
16
NYJJets
-
TBD
MetLife Stadium
77°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
0
3
14
17
Jets
0
0
8
0
8
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
370
225
Total Plays
63
67
Yards / Play
5.9
3.4
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.15
Passing Yards
242
157
Comp/Att
24/37(65%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
3.7
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.08
Rushing Yards
128
68
Rush Attempts
25
21
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
17
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
50%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-19.90
-0.04
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-12
-20
Sack EPA
-6.07
-7.84
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
55
67
Penalty EPA
-7.25
-9.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,406
Away nfelo
1,396
Home Field
+31.8
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.9
Home QB Adjustment
-0.1
Away QB Adjustment
+12.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
16
Yards / Game
24
7
Passing Yards / Game
21
21
Rushing Yards / Game
7
2
EPA
EPA / Play
20
9
EPA / Pass
21
19
EPA / Rush
10
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
4
Interceptions / Game
15
18
Fumbles / Game
15
20
Turnover EPA / Game
23
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
15
4th Down Efficiency
22
2
RZ Efficiency
20
13
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
2
Yards / Game
32
4
Passing Yards / Game
19
5
Rushing Yards / Game
31
11
EPA
EPA / Play
32
4
EPA / Pass
31
5
EPA / Rush
31
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
19
Interceptions / Game
23
12
Fumbles / Game
18
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
9
4th Down Efficiency
27
6
RZ Efficiency
21
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jets
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U