BUFBills
-
16
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
022
NYJJets
-
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
10
0
3
16
Jets
0
3
3
10
16
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
314
289
Total Plays
68
53
Yards / Play
4.6
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.02
Passing Yards
217
117
Comp/Att
29/41(71%)
14/22(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.24
Rushing Yards
97
172
Rush Attempts
22
28
Yards / Rush
4.4
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
13
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.72
-3.92
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-19
-23
Sack EPA
-5.75
-5.28
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
+0.96
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-78
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,627
Home Field
+23.3
Base HFA
+42.4
Divisional Adj
-19.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+31.9
Home QB Adjustment
+33.6
Away QB Adjustment
+1.7
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+33.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
10
Yards / Game
5
2
Passing Yards / Game
19
4
Rushing Yards / Game
5
25
EPA
EPA / Play
3
4
EPA / Pass
6
3
EPA / Rush
1
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
4
Interceptions / Game
26
5
Fumbles / Game
15
13
Turnover EPA / Game
22
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
12
4th Down Efficiency
7
5
RZ Efficiency
4
7
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
3
Yards / Game
31
8
Passing Yards / Game
30
13
Rushing Yards / Game
22
15
EPA
EPA / Play
31
11
EPA / Pass
32
6
EPA / Rush
32
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
32
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
32
3
Turnover EPA / Game
3
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
18
4th Down Efficiency
8
15
RZ Efficiency
32
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jets
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U