BUFBills
1-1
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
67°F
24 mph
27
NYJJets
1-1
TBD
MetLife Stadium
67°F
24 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
6
6
8
20
Jets
7
10
3
7
27
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
330
513
Total Plays
76
70
Yards / Play
4.3
7.3
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.00
Passing Yards
210
--
Comp/Att
19/43(44%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.32
Rushing Yards
120
182
Rush Attempts
25
41
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
8
3
3rd Down %
22%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-11.19
Sacks
8
--
Sack Yards
-35
--
Sack EPA
-10.34
--
Penalties
7
20
Penalty Yards
87
168
Penalty EPA
-7.11
-22.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+31
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.4
Home QB Adjustment
-4.5
Away QB Adjustment
+5.8
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
E. Manuel
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
Value
Ptile
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
19
Yards / Game
19
11
Passing Yards / Game
29
27
Rushing Yards / Game
2
2
EPA
EPA / Play
26
16
EPA / Pass
31
25
EPA / Rush
9
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
6
Interceptions / Game
15
22
Fumbles / Game
22
32
Turnover EPA / Game
12
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
13
4th Down Efficiency
30
10
RZ Efficiency
29
4
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
20
Yards / Game
25
10
Passing Yards / Game
32
7
Rushing Yards / Game
6
27
EPA
EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
30
2
EPA / Rush
18
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
4
Interceptions / Game
28
2
Fumbles / Game
5
24
Turnover EPA / Game
6
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
14
4th Down Efficiency
32
11
RZ Efficiency
26
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U