BUFBills
4-2
18
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
8 mph
10
NYJJets
0-6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
6
6
6
18
Jets
3
7
0
0
10
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
422
191
Total Plays
72
51
Yards / Play
5.9
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.21
Passing Yards
296
91
Comp/Att
30/43(70%)
12/23(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
4.0
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.54
Rushing Yards
126
100
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
17
Passing 1st downs
16
5
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
27%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
8
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.23
-5.90
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-11
-29
Sack EPA
-5.67
-6.55
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
106
49
Penalty EPA
-6.46
-8.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market79.1%
Model79.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-240
Home nfelo
1,286
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.6
Home QB Adjustment
+12.4
Away QB Adjustment
+22.0
Market Regression
+42.6
Final Difference
-231.2
Model Spread
+9.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.0
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
26
Yards / Game
5
24
Passing Yards / Game
6
15
Rushing Yards / Game
24
12
EPA
EPA / Play
4
24
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
16
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
9
Interceptions / Game
9
23
Fumbles / Game
22
13
Turnover EPA / Game
24
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
23
4th Down Efficiency
1
5
RZ Efficiency
12
14
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
14
Yards / Game
32
18
Passing Yards / Game
25
13
Rushing Yards / Game
22
20
EPA
EPA / Play
32
16
EPA / Pass
32
13
EPA / Rush
28
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
21
Interceptions / Game
23
12
Fumbles / Game
5
5
Turnover EPA / Game
19
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
19
4th Down Efficiency
30
16
RZ Efficiency
32
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U