BUFBills
4-3
43
TBD
MetLife Stadium
59°F
16 mph
23
NYJJets
1-6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
59°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
14
10
6
13
43
Jets
0
17
0
6
23
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
280
312
Total Plays
53
82
Yards / Play
5.3
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.30
Passing Yards
213
137
Comp/Att
10/17(59%)
20/45(44%)
Yards / Pass
12.5
3.0
EPA / Pass
+0.47
-0.56
Rushing Yards
67
175
Rush Attempts
32
33
Yards / Rush
2.1
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
25%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
19
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
6
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-23.65
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-25
-21
Sack EPA
-6.48
-9.47
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
49
90
Penalty EPA
-5.44
-7.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model50.2%
Spread Pick
Bills+3.0
Expected Value
+9.0%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-56
Home nfelo
1,423
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-33.3
Home QB Adjustment
-5.8
Away QB Adjustment
+27.5
Market Regression
+12.4
Final Difference
1.6
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+27.5
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
24
Yards / Game
24
7
Passing Yards / Game
11
30
Rushing Yards / Game
25
5
EPA
EPA / Play
25
26
EPA / Pass
21
24
EPA / Rush
28
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
8
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
15
21
Turnover EPA / Game
24
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
30
4th Down Efficiency
20
1
RZ Efficiency
30
27
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
22
4
Passing Yards / Game
23
14
Rushing Yards / Game
3
10
EPA
EPA / Play
24
1
EPA / Pass
29
1
EPA / Rush
10
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
15
Interceptions / Game
17
5
Fumbles / Game
10
10
Turnover EPA / Game
15
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
1
4th Down Efficiency
7
14
RZ Efficiency
32
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
3-5-2
ATS
5-5
O/U