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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ jets week 8, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BUF logo
BUFBills
4-3
43
TBD
MetLife Stadium
59°F
16 mph
23
NYJJets
1-6
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
59°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
14
10
6
13
43
Jets
0
17
0
6
23

Spread

BUF logo
+3

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
280
312
Total Plays
53
82
Yards / Play
5.3
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.30
Passing Yards
213
137
Comp/Att
10/17(59%)
20/45(44%)
Yards / Pass
12.5
3.0
EPA / Pass
+0.47
-0.56
Rushing Yards
67
175
Rush Attempts
32
33
Yards / Rush
2.1
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
25%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
19
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
6
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-23.65
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-25
-21
Sack EPA
-6.48
-9.47
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
49
90
Penalty EPA
-5.44
-7.43

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model50.2%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.0%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-57
Home nfelo
1,422
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-33.3
Home QB Adjustment
-5.8
Away QB Adjustment
+27.5
Market Regression
+12.4
Final Difference
1.2
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+27.5
Value
Ptile
09/25
-2.2
35
10/02
1.8
64
10/09
-7.0
10
12/18
4.1
77
12/24
0.1
53
01/01
-3.3
29
12/29
4.7
82
10/05
2.4
68
10/12
-1.3
41
10/19
-1.7
38
E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
Value
Ptile
12/15
-3.8
26
12/22
6.5
88
12/29
4.4
81
09/07
1.1
58
09/14
-1.4
40
09/22
-1.3
41
09/28
-3.9
26
10/05
-9.1
6
10/12
-4.9
20
10/16
0.4
52

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Bills logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
18
24
Yards / Game
24
7
Passing Yards / Game
11
30
Rushing Yards / Game
25
5

EPA

EPA / Play
25
26
EPA / Pass
21
24
EPA / Rush
28
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
8
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
15
21
Turnover EPA / Game
24
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
30
4th Down Efficiency
20
1
RZ Efficiency
30
27
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Jets logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
22
4
Passing Yards / Game
23
14
Rushing Yards / Game
3
10

EPA

EPA / Play
24
1
EPA / Pass
29
1
EPA / Rush
10
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
15
Interceptions / Game
17
5
Fumbles / Game
10
10
Turnover EPA / Game
15
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
1
4th Down Efficiency
7
14
RZ Efficiency
32
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
7
W
W
O
12/22
19
W
W
U
12/29
-14
L
L
O
09/07
3
W
W
U
09/14
19
W
W
U
09/21
-12
L
L
U
09/28
-6
L
L
U
10/05
3
W
W
U
10/12
-15
L
L
O
10/19
1
W
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
3-5-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
-10
L
P
O
12/22
11
W
W
U
12/29
13
W
W
U
09/07
5
W
L
U
09/14
-7
L
P
O
09/22
-8
L
L
O
09/28
-7
L
L
U
10/05
-31
L
L
U
10/12
-14
L
L
O
10/16
-2
L
W
O