BUFBills
4-4
22
TBD
MetLife Stadium
60°F
16 mph
17
NYJJets
5-3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
60°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
6
10
0
16
Jets
3
0
7
7
17
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
280
318
Total Plays
64
59
Yards / Play
4.4
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.36
Passing Yards
132
190
Comp/Att
17/27(63%)
15/34(44%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.23
Rushing Yards
148
128
Rush Attempts
33
24
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
15
Passing 1st downs
6
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
31%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-16.96
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-26
-3
Sack EPA
-6.75
-0.89
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
44
--
Penalty EPA
-3.84
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+51
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+33.9
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
-27.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+26.2
Home QB Adjustment
+16.1
Away QB Adjustment
-10.1
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-10.1
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
7
Yards / Game
13
4
Passing Yards / Game
28
9
Rushing Yards / Game
1
2
EPA
EPA / Play
12
4
EPA / Pass
14
9
EPA / Rush
2
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
31
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
11
12
Turnover EPA / Game
32
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
3
4th Down Efficiency
24
21
RZ Efficiency
26
1
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
15
Yards / Game
10
20
Passing Yards / Game
15
22
Rushing Yards / Game
10
16
EPA
EPA / Play
17
16
EPA / Pass
9
15
EPA / Rush
15
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
11
Interceptions / Game
22
6
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
24
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
23
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
3
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jets
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U