BUFBills
7-3
28
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
025
DETLions
4-6
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
10
0
9
26
Lions
7
7
0
11
25
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
401
328
Total Plays
74
68
Yards / Play
5.4
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.07
Passing Yards
237
230
Comp/Att
24/42(57%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.15
Rushing Yards
164
98
Rush Attempts
29
29
Yards / Rush
5.7
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.28
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
22
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
58%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.60
-5.06
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-16
-10
Sack EPA
-3.69
-2.11
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
36
32
Penalty EPA
-5.84
-3.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market79.1%
Model79.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-202
Home nfelo
1,420
Away nfelo
1,662
Home Field
+40.2
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.3
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-231.2
Model Spread
+9.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
28
Yards / Game
2
32
Passing Yards / Game
2
22
Rushing Yards / Game
8
29
EPA
EPA / Play
3
30
EPA / Pass
5
24
EPA / Rush
7
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
31
14
Turnover EPA / Game
2
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
30
4th Down Efficiency
16
21
RZ Efficiency
9
26
Lions Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
4
Yards / Game
4
7
Passing Yards / Game
17
25
Rushing Yards / Game
11
6
EPA
EPA / Play
4
6
EPA / Pass
3
12
EPA / Rush
25
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
17
Interceptions / Game
2
4
Fumbles / Game
11
13
Turnover EPA / Game
30
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
22
RZ Efficiency
4
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Lions
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U