nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ lions week 12, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

BUF logo
BUFBills
7-3
28
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
25
DETLions
4-6
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
10
0
9
26
Lions
7
7
0
11
25

Spread

DET logo
+9.5

Total

UNDER
54

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
401
328
Total Plays
74
68
Yards / Play
5.4
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.07
Passing Yards
237
230
Comp/Att
24/42(57%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.15
Rushing Yards
164
98
Rush Attempts
29
29
Yards / Rush
5.7
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.28
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
28
22
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
58%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.60
-5.06
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-16
-10
Sack EPA
-3.69
-2.11
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
36
32
Penalty EPA
-5.84
-3.65

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market79.1%
Model78.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-197
Home nfelo
1,422
Away nfelo
1,660
Home Field
+40.2
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.3
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-224.3
Model Spread
+9.0

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Value
Ptile
09/08
9.9
96
09/19
9.3
95
09/25
7.5
92
10/02
1.8
66
10/09
13.1
99
10/16
6.4
90
10/30
-0.5
48
11/06
-1.3
44
11/13
5.4
86
11/20
-0.5
48
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+2.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Value
Ptile
09/11
-1.4
43
09/18
1.9
67
09/25
0.9
58
10/02
7.8
92
10/09
-4.8
19
10/23
-4.8
19
10/30
4.7
84
11/06
-1.7
41
11/13
1.4
62
11/20
-1.8
38

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Lions Defense
Bills logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
3
28
Yards / Game
2
32
Passing Yards / Game
2
22
Rushing Yards / Game
8
29

EPA

EPA / Play
3
30
EPA / Pass
5
24
EPA / Rush
7
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
31
14
Turnover EPA / Game
2
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
30
4th Down Efficiency
16
21
RZ Efficiency
9
26
Lions Offense vs Bills Defense
Lions logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
5
4
Yards / Game
4
7
Passing Yards / Game
17
25
Rushing Yards / Game
11
6

EPA

EPA / Play
4
6
EPA / Pass
3
12
EPA / Rush
25
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
17
Interceptions / Game
2
4
Fumbles / Game
11
13
Turnover EPA / Game
30
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
22
RZ Efficiency
4
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
21
W
W
U
09/19
34
W
W
O
09/25
-2
L
L
U
10/02
3
W
P
U
10/09
35
W
W
U
10/16
4
W
W
U
10/30
10
W
L
U
11/06
-3
L
L
U
11/13
-3
L
L
O
11/20
8
W
W
O
DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
-3
L
W
O
09/18
9
W
W
O
09/25
-4
L
W
P
10/02
-3
L
L
O
10/09
-29
L
L
U
10/23
-18
L
L
U
10/30
-4
L
L
O
11/06
6
W
W
U
11/13
1
W
W
O
11/20
13
W
W
O