BUFBills
0-1
7
TBD
Lambeau Field
58°F
4 mph
34
GBPackers
1-0
TBD
Lambeau Field
58°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
7
0
0
7
Packers
13
0
14
7
34
Spread
-12.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
186
346
Total Plays
54
56
Yards / Play
3.4
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.27
Passing Yards
62
--
Comp/Att
11/18(61%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.91
+0.42
Rushing Yards
124
91
Rush Attempts
32
27
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
18
Passing 1st downs
4
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.57
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-40
--
Sack EPA
-9.43
--
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
35
49
Penalty EPA
-3.24
-4.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+270
Home nfelo
1,631
Away nfelo
1,449
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+15.6
Home QB Adjustment
+8.8
Away QB Adjustment
-6.8
Market Regression
-42.2
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
T. Edwards
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.8
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
1
Yards / Game
25
5
Passing Yards / Game
9
14
Rushing Yards / Game
18
12
EPA
EPA / Play
29
4
EPA / Pass
28
1
EPA / Rush
23
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
14
Interceptions / Game
27
1
Fumbles / Game
31
26
Turnover EPA / Game
3
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
9
4th Down Efficiency
16
4
RZ Efficiency
21
14
Packers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
28
Yards / Game
9
24
Passing Yards / Game
7
8
Rushing Yards / Game
24
32
EPA
EPA / Play
4
27
EPA / Pass
3
28
EPA / Rush
11
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
18
Interceptions / Game
7
28
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
27
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
31
4th Down Efficiency
25
29
RZ Efficiency
4
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
8-1-1
ATS
4-6
O/U