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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ packers week 2, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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BUF logo
BUFBills
0-1
7
TBD
Lambeau Field
58°F
4 mph
34
GBPackers
1-0
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
58°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
7
0
0
7
Packers
13
0
14
7
34

Spread

GB logo
-12.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
186
346
Total Plays
54
56
Yards / Play
3.4
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.27
Passing Yards
62
--
Comp/Att
11/18(61%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.91
+0.42
Rushing Yards
124
91
Rush Attempts
32
27
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
14
18
Passing 1st downs
4
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.57
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-40
--
Sack EPA
-9.43
--
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
35
49
Penalty EPA
-3.24
-4.12

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5

Win Probability

Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+273
Home nfelo
1,634
Away nfelo
1,449
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+15.6
Home QB Adjustment
+8.8
Away QB Adjustment
-6.8
Market Regression
-42.4
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5

Quarterbacks

T. Edwards headshot

T. Edwards

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.8
Value
Ptile
12/21
1.7
63
12/28
-3.2
27
09/14
1.4
58
09/20
3.1
70
09/27
-6.2
14
10/04
-11.0
2
10/11
-3.6
27
10/18
-3.7
25
11/15
-2.9
31
09/12
-3.4
27
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
Value
Ptile
11/15
2.1
64
11/22
7.7
91
11/26
8.4
93
12/07
5.0
82
12/13
-2.8
32
12/20
11.6
98
12/27
0.3
52
01/03
8.5
93
01/10
9.8
96
09/12
-3.5
26

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Packers Defense
Bills logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
1
Yards / Game
25
5
Passing Yards / Game
9
14
Rushing Yards / Game
18
12

EPA

EPA / Play
29
4
EPA / Pass
28
1
EPA / Rush
23
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
14
Interceptions / Game
27
1
Fumbles / Game
31
26
Turnover EPA / Game
3
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
9
4th Down Efficiency
16
4
RZ Efficiency
21
14
Packers Offense vs Bills Defense
Packers logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
7
28
Yards / Game
9
24
Passing Yards / Game
7
8
Rushing Yards / Game
24
32

EPA

EPA / Play
4
27
EPA / Pass
3
28
EPA / Rush
11
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
18
Interceptions / Game
7
28
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
27
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
31
4th Down Efficiency
25
29
RZ Efficiency
4
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
-21
L
L
U
11/15
-24
L
L
O
11/22
-3
L
W
U
11/29
17
W
W
O
12/03
-6
L
L
U
12/13
6
W
W
U
12/20
-7
L
L
U
12/27
-28
L
L
U
01/03
23
W
W
O
09/12
-5
L
L
U
GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
8-1-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
10
W
W
U
11/22
6
W
P
O
11/26
22
W
W
U
12/07
13
W
W
U
12/13
7
W
W
U
12/20
-1
L
W
O
12/27
38
W
W
O
01/03
26
W
W
U
01/10
-6
L
L
O
09/12
7
W
W
U