BUFBills
1-2
0
TBD
Lambeau Field
49°F
9 mph
22
GBPackers
1-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
49°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
0
0
0
0
Packers
6
10
3
3
22
Spread
-9
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
145
423
Total Plays
56
74
Yards / Play
2.6
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.50
-0.03
Passing Yards
87
282
Comp/Att
16/33(48%)
22/40(55%)
Yards / Pass
2.6
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.54
-0.04
Rushing Yards
58
141
Rush Attempts
16
32
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
22
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
19%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
3
11
3rd Down Attempts
16
19
Red Zone %
NaN%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.22
-9.27
Sacks
7
2
Sack Yards
-64
-16
Sack EPA
-12.55
-5.65
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
20
60
Penalty EPA
-1.59
-5.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+188
Home nfelo
1,520
Away nfelo
1,346
Home Field
+66.3
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
-10.1
Net QB Adjustment
-51.7
Home QB Adjustment
+14.2
Away QB Adjustment
+65.9
Market Regression
-18.9
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+65.9
Value
Ptile
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
22
Yards / Game
30
18
Passing Yards / Game
32
21
Rushing Yards / Game
8
23
EPA
EPA / Play
31
24
EPA / Pass
31
30
EPA / Rush
20
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
2
Interceptions / Game
31
29
Fumbles / Game
11
5
Turnover EPA / Game
6
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
13
4th Down Efficiency
31
28
RZ Efficiency
16
17
Packers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
19
Yards / Game
10
2
Passing Yards / Game
4
1
Rushing Yards / Game
22
15
EPA
EPA / Play
14
4
EPA / Pass
16
2
EPA / Rush
2
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
14
Interceptions / Game
1
7
Fumbles / Game
13
2
Turnover EPA / Game
30
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
11
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
14
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
3-6-1
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U