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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ packers week 4, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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BUF logo
BUFBills
1-2
0
TBD
Lambeau Field
49°F
9 mph
22
GBPackers
1-1
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
49°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
0
0
0
0
Packers
6
10
3
3
22

Spread

GB logo
-9

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
145
423
Total Plays
56
74
Yards / Play
2.6
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.50
-0.03
Passing Yards
87
282
Comp/Att
16/33(48%)
22/40(55%)
Yards / Pass
2.6
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.54
-0.04
Rushing Yards
58
141
Rush Attempts
16
32
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
11
22
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
19%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
3
11
3rd Down Attempts
16
19
Red Zone %
NaN%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.22
-9.27
Sacks
7
2
Sack Yards
-64
-16
Sack EPA
-12.55
-5.65
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
20
60
Penalty EPA
-1.59
-5.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+189
Home nfelo
1,517
Away nfelo
1,344
Home Field
+67.1
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-51.7
Home QB Adjustment
+14.2
Away QB Adjustment
+65.9
Market Regression
-19.1
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+65.9
Value
Ptile
09/16
-6.3
12
09/23
4.7
78
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Value
Ptile
09/10
-0.1
51
09/17
2.5
70
09/24
1.5
64
09/28
3.1
75
10/08
2.3
69
10/15
-5.5
17
12/17
-0.4
49
09/09
6.1
85
09/16
1.9
61
09/23
1.6
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Packers Defense
Bills logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
30
22
Yards / Game
30
18
Passing Yards / Game
32
21
Rushing Yards / Game
8
23

EPA

EPA / Play
31
24
EPA / Pass
31
30
EPA / Rush
20
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
2
Interceptions / Game
31
29
Fumbles / Game
11
5
Turnover EPA / Game
6
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
13
4th Down Efficiency
31
28
RZ Efficiency
16
17
Packers Offense vs Bills Defense
Packers logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
14
19
Yards / Game
10
2
Passing Yards / Game
4
1
Rushing Yards / Game
22
15

EPA

EPA / Play
14
4
EPA / Pass
16
2
EPA / Rush
2
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
14
Interceptions / Game
1
7
Fumbles / Game
13
2
Turnover EPA / Game
30
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
11
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
14
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
6
W
W
U
12/03
-20
L
L
U
12/10
6
W
W
U
12/17
8
W
W
O
12/24
-21
L
L
O
12/31
6
W
W
U
01/07
-7
L
W
U
09/09
-44
L
L
O
09/16
-11
L
L
O
09/23
21
W
W
U
GB logo

Packers

3-6-1
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
-23
L
L
U
11/26
-3
L
W
O
12/03
6
W
W
O
12/10
6
W
W
O
12/17
-7
L
L
O
12/23
-16
L
L
U
12/31
-24
L
L
O
09/09
1
W
L
O
09/16
0
T
W
O
09/23
-14
L
L
O