nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ patriots week 3, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

BUF logo
BUFBills
0-2
30
TBD
Gillette Stadium
68°F
11 mph
38
NEPatriots
1-1
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
68°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
13
7
7
30
Patriots
7
10
14
7
38

Spread

BUF logo
+14.5

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
374
445
Total Plays
53
66
Yards / Play
7.1
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.30
Passing Yards
240
245
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.37
Rushing Yards
134
200
Rush Attempts
24
38
Yards / Rush
5.6
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
50%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.95
-2.41
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-7
Sack EPA
-1.39
-0.97
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
45
--
Penalty EPA
-0.60
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.5
Model
-13.5

Win Probability

Market87.9%
Model85.6%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills+14.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+200
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,432
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.6
Home QB Adjustment
+8.4
Away QB Adjustment
-8.3
Market Regression
+26.3
Final Difference
309.5
Model Spread
-13.5

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-8.3
Value
Ptile
12/21
-2.2
34
12/28
-2.7
30
10/25
-3.5
27
11/01
-7.1
11
11/22
-2.4
35
11/29
1.1
56
12/03
-6.7
12
12/13
-5.4
18
12/20
-3.7
25
01/03
4.6
80
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
Value
Ptile
11/22
5.3
83
11/30
-2.1
38
12/06
4.8
81
12/13
-0.0
49
12/20
-2.8
32
12/27
10.5
98
01/03
-2.3
36
01/10
-6.6
12
09/12
8.9
96
09/19
0.0
49

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Bills logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
28
8
Yards / Game
25
25
Passing Yards / Game
9
25
Rushing Yards / Game
18
13

EPA

EPA / Play
29
20
EPA / Pass
28
15
EPA / Rush
23
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
27
2
Fumbles / Game
31
13
Turnover EPA / Game
3
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
25
RZ Efficiency
21
22
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Patriots logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
1
28
Yards / Game
7
24
Passing Yards / Game
23
8
Rushing Yards / Game
9
32

EPA

EPA / Play
1
27
EPA / Pass
2
28
EPA / Rush
2
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
18
Interceptions / Game
1
28
Fumbles / Game
2
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
31
4th Down Efficiency
17
29
RZ Efficiency
9
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-24
L
L
O
11/22
-3
L
W
U
11/29
17
W
W
O
12/03
-6
L
L
U
12/13
6
W
W
U
12/20
-7
L
L
U
12/27
-28
L
L
U
01/03
23
W
W
O
09/12
-5
L
L
U
09/19
-27
L
L
U
NE logo

Patriots

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
17
W
W
P
11/30
-21
L
L
U
12/06
-1
L
L
U
12/13
10
W
L
U
12/20
7
W
W
U
12/27
28
W
W
U
01/03
-7
L
W
O
01/10
-19
L
L
O
09/12
14
W
W
O
09/19
-14
L
L
O