BUFBills
0-2
30
TBD
Gillette Stadium
68°F
11 mph
38
NEPatriots
1-1
TBD
Gillette Stadium
68°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
13
7
7
30
Patriots
7
10
14
7
38
Spread
+14.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
445
Total Plays
53
66
Yards / Play
7.1
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.30
Passing Yards
240
245
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.37
Rushing Yards
134
200
Rush Attempts
24
38
Yards / Rush
5.6
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
50%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.95
-2.41
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-7
Sack EPA
-1.39
-0.97
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
45
--
Penalty EPA
-0.60
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market87.9%
Model85.5%
Spread Pick
Bills+14.5
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+197
Home nfelo
1,579
Away nfelo
1,432
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.6
Home QB Adjustment
+8.4
Away QB Adjustment
-8.3
Market Regression
+26.4
Final Difference
308.9
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-8.3
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
8
Yards / Game
25
25
Passing Yards / Game
9
25
Rushing Yards / Game
18
13
EPA
EPA / Play
29
20
EPA / Pass
28
15
EPA / Rush
23
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
27
2
Fumbles / Game
31
13
Turnover EPA / Game
3
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
25
RZ Efficiency
21
22
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
28
Yards / Game
7
24
Passing Yards / Game
23
8
Rushing Yards / Game
9
32
EPA
EPA / Play
1
27
EPA / Pass
2
28
EPA / Rush
2
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
18
Interceptions / Game
1
28
Fumbles / Game
2
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
31
4th Down Efficiency
17
29
RZ Efficiency
9
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U