BUFBills
4-2
25
TBD
Gillette Stadium
55°F
13 mph
29
NEPatriots
1-5
TBD
Gillette Stadium
55°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
3
7
15
25
Patriots
10
3
3
13
29
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
341
364
Total Plays
66
56
Yards / Play
5.2
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.10
Passing Yards
258
268
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
25/30(83%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.31
Rushing Yards
81
96
Rush Attempts
24
25
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
21
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
42%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.89
-3.52
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-4
Sack EPA
-1.16
-1.59
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
46
59
Penalty EPA
-1.23
-7.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-169
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,646
Home Field
+23.7
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-27.4
Home QB Adjustment
-16.8
Away QB Adjustment
+10.6
Market Regression
+22.0
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-16.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
14
Yards / Game
5
6
Passing Yards / Game
19
8
Rushing Yards / Game
5
3
EPA
EPA / Play
3
6
EPA / Pass
6
20
EPA / Rush
1
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
9
Interceptions / Game
26
23
Fumbles / Game
15
26
Turnover EPA / Game
22
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
7
4th Down Efficiency
7
20
RZ Efficiency
4
5
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
3
Yards / Game
30
8
Passing Yards / Game
31
13
Rushing Yards / Game
25
15
EPA
EPA / Play
32
11
EPA / Pass
31
6
EPA / Rush
22
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
32
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
16
3
Turnover EPA / Game
4
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
18
4th Down Efficiency
32
15
RZ Efficiency
11
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
2-8
SU
1-9
ATS
4-6
O/U