BUFBills
3-4
16
TBD
Gillette Stadium
58°F
7 mph
21
NEPatriots
3-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
58°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
3
7
6
16
Patriots
0
0
7
14
21
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
384
273
Total Plays
74
46
Yards / Play
5.2
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.03
Passing Yards
237
180
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
14/21(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.03
Rushing Yards
147
93
Rush Attempts
39
22
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
50%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
7
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-8.90
-10.08
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-19
Sack EPA
-6.10
-9.83
Penalties
12
7
Penalty Yards
74
57
Penalty EPA
-6.75
-7.03
Preview data is limited for games before 2009
Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
17
Yards / Game
29
24
Passing Yards / Game
22
20
Rushing Yards / Game
21
7
EPA
EPA / Play
17
23
EPA / Pass
21
25
EPA / Rush
23
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
26
Interceptions / Game
17
26
Fumbles / Game
8
29
Turnover EPA / Game
22
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
22
4th Down Efficiency
24
3
RZ Efficiency
30
24
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
24
Yards / Game
6
29
Passing Yards / Game
7
27
Rushing Yards / Game
23
30
EPA
EPA / Play
7
30
EPA / Pass
4
26
EPA / Rush
16
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
12
Interceptions / Game
16
11
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
16
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
32
4th Down Efficiency
3
23
RZ Efficiency
3
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
0-0-10
O/U