BUFBills
1-6
11
TBD
Foxboro Stadium
47°F
25 mph
21
NEPatriots
4-4
TBD
Foxboro Stadium
47°F
25 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
3
0
8
11
Patriots
7
0
7
7
21
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
244
205
Total Plays
60
59
Yards / Play
4.1
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.09
Passing Yards
175
71
Comp/Att
16/34(47%)
15/21(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
3.4
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.57
Rushing Yards
69
134
Rush Attempts
21
31
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
15
Passing 1st downs
8
5
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
5
4
3rd Down %
17%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.98
-8.84
Sacks
5
7
Sack Yards
-31
-36
Sack EPA
-5.95
-11.93
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
75
75
Penalty EPA
-10.87
-7.09
Preview data is limited for games before 2009
Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
5
Yards / Game
13
23
Passing Yards / Game
11
30
Rushing Yards / Game
23
17
EPA
EPA / Play
23
7
EPA / Pass
21
8
EPA / Rush
16
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
9
Interceptions / Game
20
7
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
8
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
8
RZ Efficiency
16
4
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
29
Yards / Game
20
20
Passing Yards / Game
19
3
Rushing Yards / Game
17
26
EPA
EPA / Play
11
29
EPA / Pass
10
17
EPA / Rush
21
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
8
Interceptions / Game
6
29
Fumbles / Game
10
29
Turnover EPA / Game
22
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
15
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Patriots
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
0-0-10
O/U