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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ patriots week 10, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
3-5
31
TBD
Gillette Stadium
60°F
12 mph
37
NEPatriots
5-3
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
60°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
17
7
7
31
Patriots
10
14
7
6
37

Spread

BUF logo
+13.5

Total

OVER
54

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
481
347
Total Plays
71
68
Yards / Play
6.8
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.31
Passing Yards
319
230
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
23/38(61%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.36
+0.23
Rushing Yards
162
117
Rush Attempts
28
29
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.25
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
35
27
Passing 1st downs
20
14
Rushing 1st downs
11
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
5
3rd Down %
64%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
57%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
7
5
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-12.36
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-7
Sack EPA
-6.95
-2.83
Penalties
14
7
Penalty Yards
148
73
Penalty EPA
-16.74
-8.05

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5

Win Probability

Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+282
Home nfelo
1,671
Away nfelo
1,452
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.6
Home QB Adjustment
+16.8
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
+47.7
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
Value
Ptile
12/24
-0.9
46
01/01
-1.4
41
09/09
-0.8
43
09/16
3.7
73
09/23
4.4
78
09/30
-1.4
40
10/07
-4.6
22
10/14
-3.2
28
10/21
5.5
84
11/04
-0.1
50
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
Value
Ptile
01/22
-0.3
50
02/05
1.9
65
09/09
4.6
80
09/16
-1.1
41
09/23
5.8
85
09/30
9.4
95
10/07
0.9
55
10/14
5.2
83
10/21
4.8
81
10/28
9.8
96

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Bills logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
21
10
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
28
31
Rushing Yards / Game
6
8

EPA

EPA / Play
20
17
EPA / Pass
21
19
EPA / Rush
10
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
30
Interceptions / Game
22
6
Fumbles / Game
31
2
Turnover EPA / Game
5
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
20
4th Down Efficiency
7
13
RZ Efficiency
22
23
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Patriots logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
1
26
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
9
7
Rushing Yards / Game
7
31

EPA

EPA / Play
1
28
EPA / Pass
1
15
EPA / Rush
3
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
23
Interceptions / Game
5
20
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
26
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
32
4th Down Efficiency
5
18
RZ Efficiency
1
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
26
W
W
O
01/01
-28
L
L
O
09/09
-20
L
L
O
09/16
18
W
W
O
09/23
10
W
W
U
09/30
-24
L
L
O
10/07
-42
L
L
O
10/14
3
W
W
U
10/21
-1
L
L
O
11/04
-12
L
L
U
NE logo

Patriots

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/22
3
W
L
U
02/05
-4
L
L
U
09/09
21
W
W
U
09/16
-2
L
L
U
09/23
-1
L
W
O
09/30
24
W
W
O
10/07
10
W
W
O
10/14
-1
L
L
O
10/21
3
W
L
O
10/28
38
W
W
O