BUFBills
3-5
31
TBD
Gillette Stadium
60°F
12 mph
37
NEPatriots
5-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
60°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
17
7
7
31
Patriots
10
14
7
6
37
Spread
+13.5
Total
OVER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
481
347
Total Plays
71
68
Yards / Play
6.8
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.31
Passing Yards
319
230
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
23/38(61%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.36
+0.23
Rushing Yards
162
117
Rush Attempts
28
29
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.25
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
35
27
Passing 1st downs
20
14
Rushing 1st downs
11
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
5
3rd Down %
64%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
57%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
7
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-12.36
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-7
Sack EPA
-6.95
-2.83
Penalties
14
7
Penalty Yards
148
73
Penalty EPA
-16.74
-8.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+282
Home nfelo
1,671
Away nfelo
1,452
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.6
Home QB Adjustment
+16.8
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
+47.7
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
10
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
28
31
Rushing Yards / Game
6
8
EPA
EPA / Play
20
17
EPA / Pass
21
19
EPA / Rush
10
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
30
Interceptions / Game
22
6
Fumbles / Game
31
2
Turnover EPA / Game
5
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
20
4th Down Efficiency
7
13
RZ Efficiency
22
23
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
26
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
9
7
Rushing Yards / Game
7
31
EPA
EPA / Play
1
28
EPA / Pass
1
15
EPA / Rush
3
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
23
Interceptions / Game
5
20
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
26
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
32
4th Down Efficiency
5
18
RZ Efficiency
1
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Patriots
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U