BUFBills
5-4
13
TBD
Gillette Stadium
29°F
8 mph
20
NEPatriots
9-0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
29°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
3
7
3
13
Patriots
3
7
10
0
20
Spread
7
P
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
319
356
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
4.7
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.00
Passing Yards
225
271
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
20/39(51%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.08
Rushing Yards
94
85
Rush Attempts
30
22
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
20%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+1.94
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-6
Sack EPA
-1.93
-1.87
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
44
61
Penalty EPA
-6.16
-6.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model76.1%
Spread Pick
Patriots-7.0
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+234
Home nfelo
1,680
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+33.9
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
-27.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+31.6
Home QB Adjustment
+19.7
Away QB Adjustment
-11.9
Market Regression
-2.8
Final Difference
201.2
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.9
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+19.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
8
Yards / Game
13
8
Passing Yards / Game
28
28
Rushing Yards / Game
1
10
EPA
EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
14
12
EPA / Rush
2
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
14
Interceptions / Game
5
24
Fumbles / Game
11
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
16
4th Down Efficiency
24
12
RZ Efficiency
26
14
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
15
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
32
16
EPA
EPA / Play
1
16
EPA / Pass
4
15
EPA / Rush
6
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
11
Interceptions / Game
2
6
Fumbles / Game
2
15
Turnover EPA / Game
31
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
23
4th Down Efficiency
7
1
RZ Efficiency
4
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
10-0
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U