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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ patriots week 11, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
5-4
13
TBD
Gillette Stadium
29°F
8 mph
20
NEPatriots
9-0
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
29°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
3
7
3
13
Patriots
3
7
10
0
20

Spread

BUF logo
NE logo
7
P

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
319
356
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
4.7
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.00
Passing Yards
225
271
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
20/39(51%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.08
Rushing Yards
94
85
Rush Attempts
30
22
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
20%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+1.94
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-6
Sack EPA
-1.93
-1.87
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
44
61
Penalty EPA
-6.16
-6.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model76.0%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+232
Home nfelo
1,677
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+34.2
Base HFA
+62.3
Divisional Adj
-28.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+31.6
Home QB Adjustment
+19.7
Away QB Adjustment
-11.9
Market Regression
-3.1
Final Difference
199.9
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-11.9
Value
Ptile
09/20
-1.9
36
09/27
7.7
93
10/04
-0.0
51
10/11
1.3
61
11/08
0.4
52
11/12
-4.1
20
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+19.7
Value
Ptile
02/01
8.6
93
09/10
7.3
92
09/20
10.6
97
09/27
7.8
93
10/11
2.0
65
10/18
2.9
72
10/25
7.6
93
10/29
8.6
95
11/08
3.0
73
11/15
0.4
53

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Bills logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
12
8
Yards / Game
13
8
Passing Yards / Game
28
28
Rushing Yards / Game
1
10

EPA

EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
14
12
EPA / Rush
2
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
14
Interceptions / Game
5
24
Fumbles / Game
11
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
16
4th Down Efficiency
24
12
RZ Efficiency
26
14
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Patriots logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
3
15
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
32
16

EPA

EPA / Play
1
16
EPA / Pass
4
15
EPA / Rush
6
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
11
Interceptions / Game
2
6
Fumbles / Game
2
15
Turnover EPA / Game
31
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
23
4th Down Efficiency
7
1
RZ Efficiency
4
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
8
W
W
U
09/13
13
W
W
U
09/20
-8
L
L
O
09/27
27
W
W
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/11
1
W
W
U
10/18
-13
L
L
O
10/25
-3
L
L
O
11/08
16
W
W
O
11/12
5
W
W
U
NE logo

Patriots

10-0
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
02/01
4
W
W
O
09/10
7
W
L
U
09/20
8
W
W
O
09/27
34
W
W
O
10/11
24
W
W
U
10/18
7
W
L
O
10/25
7
W
P
O
10/29
29
W
W
U
11/08
17
W
W
U
11/15
1
W
L
O