BUFBills
5-9
12
TBD
Gillette Stadium
40°F
12 mph
24
NEPatriots
9-5
TBD
Gillette Stadium
40°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
0
6
6
12
Patriots
7
7
7
3
24
Spread
+13.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
289
390
Total Plays
60
73
Yards / Play
4.8
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.47
-0.23
Passing Yards
--
117
Comp/Att
20/42(48%)
13/25(52%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.42
-0.78
Rushing Yards
72
273
Rush Attempts
18
47
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
20
Passing 1st downs
10
4
Rushing 1st downs
3
15
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
17%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.64
-15.07
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-1.73
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
29
49
Penalty EPA
-3.70
-5.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+343
Home nfelo
1,662
Away nfelo
1,304
Home Field
+31.6
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
-26.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-46.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+48.9
Market Regression
+18.3
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+48.9
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
6
Yards / Game
30
15
Passing Yards / Game
32
9
Rushing Yards / Game
8
7
EPA
EPA / Play
31
7
EPA / Pass
31
5
EPA / Rush
20
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
32
Interceptions / Game
31
5
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
6
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
15
4th Down Efficiency
31
4
RZ Efficiency
16
24
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
19
Yards / Game
4
2
Passing Yards / Game
25
1
Rushing Yards / Game
5
15
EPA
EPA / Play
4
4
EPA / Pass
7
2
EPA / Rush
6
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
14
Interceptions / Game
12
7
Fumbles / Game
8
2
Turnover EPA / Game
27
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
11
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
10
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U