BUFBills
10-4
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
33°F
2 mph
24
NEPatriots
11-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
33°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
7
7
0
17
Patriots
7
3
3
11
24
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
268
416
Total Plays
53
69
Yards / Play
5.1
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.11
Passing Yards
176
--
Comp/Att
13/26(50%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.18
Rushing Yards
92
143
Rush Attempts
23
35
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
23
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
18%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.98
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-32
--
Sack EPA
-5.40
--
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
46
--
Penalty EPA
-3.04
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+185
Home nfelo
1,690
Away nfelo
1,508
Home Field
+41.9
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
-21.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-39.1
Home QB Adjustment
-28.1
Away QB Adjustment
+11.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.1
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-28.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
1
Yards / Game
24
1
Passing Yards / Game
21
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
8
EPA
EPA / Play
20
1
EPA / Pass
20
1
EPA / Rush
10
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
29
Interceptions / Game
15
1
Fumbles / Game
15
18
Turnover EPA / Game
23
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
1
4th Down Efficiency
22
6
RZ Efficiency
20
8
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
14
4
Passing Yards / Game
20
5
Rushing Yards / Game
18
11
EPA
EPA / Play
16
4
EPA / Pass
18
5
EPA / Rush
15
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
19
Interceptions / Game
10
12
Fumbles / Game
15
18
Turnover EPA / Game
28
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
9
4th Down Efficiency
26
6
RZ Efficiency
26
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U