BUFBills
13-3
16
TBD
Gillette Stadium
33°F
14 mph
23
NEPatriots
3-13
TBD
Gillette Stadium
33°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
10
6
0
16
Patriots
7
7
3
6
23
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
259
309
Total Plays
65
61
Yards / Play
4.0
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.00
Passing Yards
--
232
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.30
Rushing Yards
130
77
Rush Attempts
33
30
Yards / Rush
3.9
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
7
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
40%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.72
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-1.82
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
35
59
Penalty EPA
-4.06
-7.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model72.9%
Spread Pick
Bills-3.5
Expected Value
+21.7%
Cover Probability
63.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-266
Home nfelo
1,346
Away nfelo
1,676
Home Field
+21.4
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+42.5
Home QB Adjustment
-78.2
Away QB Adjustment
-120.6
Market Regression
-36.0
Final Difference
-171.9
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-120.6
J. Milton
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-78.2
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
21
Yards / Game
10
21
Passing Yards / Game
32
1
Rushing Yards / Game
9
22
EPA
EPA / Play
2
26
EPA / Pass
3
30
EPA / Rush
3
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
6
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
32
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
27
4th Down Efficiency
2
11
RZ Efficiency
2
26
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
31
16
Passing Yards / Game
22
24
Rushing Yards / Game
14
13
EPA
EPA / Play
28
14
EPA / Pass
27
23
EPA / Rush
25
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
32
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
29
2
Turnover EPA / Game
9
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
30
4th Down Efficiency
14
14
RZ Efficiency
30
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Patriots
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U