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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ patriots week 18, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
13-3
16
TBD
Gillette Stadium
33°F
14 mph
23
NEPatriots
3-13
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
33°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
10
6
0
16
Patriots
7
7
3
6
23

Spread

NE logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
259
309
Total Plays
65
61
Yards / Play
4.0
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.00
Passing Yards
--
232
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.30
Rushing Yards
130
77
Rush Attempts
33
30
Yards / Rush
3.9
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
7
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
40%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.72
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-1.82
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
35
59
Penalty EPA
-4.06
-7.78

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model73.1%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills-3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+21.7%
Cover Probability
63.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-270
Home nfelo
1,341
Away nfelo
1,675
Home Field
+21.2
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+42.8
Home QB Adjustment
-78.0
Away QB Adjustment
-120.8
Market Regression
-36.2
Final Difference
-173.9
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-120.8
Value
Ptile
12/27
2.2
60
01/03
2.9
66
01/10
1.4
54
09/11
-1.7
40
09/18
-3.9
24
09/22
1.2
60
10/02
-11.2
1
12/18
1.0
60
12/07
0.8
54
12/16
-4.4
22
J. Milton headshot

J. Milton

Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-78.0
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Bills logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
2
21
Yards / Game
10
21
Passing Yards / Game
32
1
Rushing Yards / Game
9
22

EPA

EPA / Play
2
26
EPA / Pass
3
30
EPA / Rush
3
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
6
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
32
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
27
4th Down Efficiency
2
11
RZ Efficiency
2
26
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Patriots logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
31
16
Passing Yards / Game
22
24
Rushing Yards / Game
14
13

EPA

EPA / Play
28
14
EPA / Pass
27
23
EPA / Rush
25
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
32
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
29
2
Turnover EPA / Game
9
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
30
4th Down Efficiency
14
14
RZ Efficiency
30
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
24
W
W
O
10/27
21
W
W
U
11/03
3
W
L
O
11/10
10
W
W
O
11/17
9
W
W
O
12/01
25
W
W
P
12/08
-2
L
L
O
12/15
6
W
W
O
12/22
3
W
L
U
12/29
26
W
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
-16
L
L
O
10/27
3
W
W
O
11/03
-3
L
P
U
11/10
16
W
W
U
11/17
-6
L
L
O
11/24
-19
L
L
O
12/01
-1
L
W
O
12/15
-13
L
L
O
12/22
-3
L
W
U
12/28
-33
L
L
O