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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ raiders week 4, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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BUF logo
BUFBills
3-0
30
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
23
OAKRaiders
2-1
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
10
0
13
30
Raiders
3
10
3
7
23

Spread

BUF logo
-3

Total

PUSH
53
P

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
337
383
Total Plays
59
69
Yards / Play
5.7
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.00
Passing Yards
274
297
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
32/44(73%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.55
+0.13
Rushing Yards
63
86
Rush Attempts
24
23
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
54%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-10.43
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-14
-14
Sack EPA
-2.49
-7.85
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
81
65
Penalty EPA
-6.10
-6.17

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-68
Home nfelo
1,464
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+10.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
-12.4
Home QB Adjustment
+16.6
Away QB Adjustment
+29.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+29.0
Value
Ptile
11/24
2.3
68
11/28
3.2
72
12/08
-9.0
6
12/15
0.0
52
12/21
1.5
65
12/29
-7.2
11
01/04
-0.2
51
09/13
8.7
94
09/20
10.7
97
09/27
6.3
86
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.6
Value
Ptile
11/17
0.3
54
11/24
-6.0
15
12/01
-3.7
26
12/08
4.6
82
12/15
-1.4
43
12/22
5.6
85
12/29
4.2
80
09/13
3.4
69
09/21
5.0
78
09/27
5.3
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Raiders Defense
Bills logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
3
30
Yards / Game
5
26
Passing Yards / Game
6
5
Rushing Yards / Game
24
23

EPA

EPA / Play
4
29
EPA / Pass
3
28
EPA / Rush
16
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
24
Interceptions / Game
9
23
Fumbles / Game
22
31
Turnover EPA / Game
24
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
30
4th Down Efficiency
1
31
RZ Efficiency
12
19
Raiders Offense vs Bills Defense
Raiders logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
10
14
Yards / Game
8
18
Passing Yards / Game
18
13
Rushing Yards / Game
14
20

EPA

EPA / Play
11
16
EPA / Pass
14
13
EPA / Rush
12
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
21
Interceptions / Game
7
12
Fumbles / Game
32
5
Turnover EPA / Game
3
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
19
4th Down Efficiency
3
16
RZ Efficiency
23
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
17
W
W
U
11/28
11
W
W
U
12/08
-7
L
L
U
12/15
7
W
W
U
12/21
-7
L
P
O
12/29
-7
L
L
U
01/04
-3
L
L
U
09/13
10
W
W
O
09/20
3
W
L
O
09/27
3
W
W
O
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
7
W
L
U
11/24
-31
L
L
U
12/01
-31
L
L
U
12/08
-21
L
L
O
12/15
-4
L
L
U
12/22
7
W
W
U
12/29
-1
L
W
U
09/13
4
W
W
O
09/21
10
W
W
O
09/27
-16
L
L
O