BUFBills
3-0
30
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
023
OAKRaiders
2-1
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
10
0
13
30
Raiders
3
10
3
7
23
Spread
-3
Total
PUSH
53
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
337
383
Total Plays
59
69
Yards / Play
5.7
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.00
Passing Yards
274
297
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
32/44(73%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.55
+0.13
Rushing Yards
63
86
Rush Attempts
24
23
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
54%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-10.43
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-14
-14
Sack EPA
-2.49
-7.85
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
81
65
Penalty EPA
-6.10
-6.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-72
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+10.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
-12.4
Home QB Adjustment
+16.6
Away QB Adjustment
+29.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.3
Team Elo Adj
+29.0
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+16.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
30
Yards / Game
5
26
Passing Yards / Game
6
5
Rushing Yards / Game
24
23
EPA
EPA / Play
4
29
EPA / Pass
3
28
EPA / Rush
16
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
24
Interceptions / Game
9
23
Fumbles / Game
22
31
Turnover EPA / Game
24
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
30
4th Down Efficiency
1
31
RZ Efficiency
12
19
Raiders Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
14
Yards / Game
8
18
Passing Yards / Game
18
13
Rushing Yards / Game
14
20
EPA
EPA / Play
11
16
EPA / Pass
14
13
EPA / Rush
12
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
21
Interceptions / Game
7
12
Fumbles / Game
32
5
Turnover EPA / Game
3
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
19
4th Down Efficiency
3
16
RZ Efficiency
23
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U