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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ ravens week 7, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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BUF logo
BUFBills
0-5
34
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
70°F
5 mph
37
BALRavens
4-2
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
70°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bills
10
14
0
10
0
34
Ravens
3
17
14
0
3
37

Spread

BUF logo
+12.5

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
506
364
Total Plays
79
62
Yards / Play
6.4
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.11
Passing Yards
374
229
Comp/Att
29/43(67%)
16/31(52%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.26
Rushing Yards
132
135
Rush Attempts
35
29
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
27
21
Passing 1st downs
21
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
65%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
11
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-17.19
-10.32
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
-3.31
-3.26
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
78
--
Penalty EPA
-9.18
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5

Win Probability

Market84.1%
Model83.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+234
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,389
Home Field
+13.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
+12.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.4
Market Regression
-17.2
Final Difference
286.5
Model Spread
-12.5

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
Value
Ptile
11/01
-7.1
11
11/22
-2.4
35
11/29
1.1
56
12/03
-6.7
12
12/13
-5.4
18
12/20
-3.7
25
01/03
4.6
80
09/26
2.2
63
10/03
1.7
58
10/10
1.7
59
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Value
Ptile
12/27
-4.3
23
01/03
-7.2
10
01/10
-7.3
9
01/16
-5.3
18
09/13
-3.3
27
09/19
-10.6
2
09/26
7.5
92
10/03
2.0
61
10/10
1.5
57
10/17
5.2
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Ravens Defense
Bills logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
28
3
Yards / Game
25
4
Passing Yards / Game
9
12
Rushing Yards / Game
18
3

EPA

EPA / Play
29
6
EPA / Pass
28
8
EPA / Rush
23
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
9
Interceptions / Game
27
7
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
3
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
12
4th Down Efficiency
16
18
RZ Efficiency
21
6
Ravens Offense vs Bills Defense
Ravens logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
13
28
Yards / Game
22
24
Passing Yards / Game
15
8
Rushing Yards / Game
16
32

EPA

EPA / Play
10
27
EPA / Pass
10
28
EPA / Rush
18
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
18
Interceptions / Game
3
28
Fumbles / Game
17
14
Turnover EPA / Game
23
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
19
29
RZ Efficiency
22
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
-6
L
L
U
12/13
6
W
W
U
12/20
-7
L
L
U
12/27
-28
L
L
U
01/03
23
W
W
O
09/12
-5
L
L
U
09/19
-27
L
L
U
09/26
-8
L
W
O
10/03
-24
L
L
O
10/10
-10
L
L
O
BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
4-4-2
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
-3
L
P
P
01/03
8
W
L
U
01/10
19
W
W
O
01/16
-17
L
L
U
09/13
1
W
W
U
09/19
-5
L
L
U
09/26
7
W
L
O
10/03
3
W
W
U
10/10
14
W
W
O
10/17
-3
L
P
U