BUFBills
0-5
34
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
70°F
5 mph
37
BALRavens
4-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
70°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bills
10
14
0
10
0
34
Ravens
3
17
14
0
3
37
Spread
+12.5
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
506
364
Total Plays
79
62
Yards / Play
6.4
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.11
Passing Yards
374
229
Comp/Att
29/43(67%)
16/31(52%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.26
Rushing Yards
132
135
Rush Attempts
35
29
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
21
Passing 1st downs
21
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
65%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
11
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-17.19
-10.32
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
-3.31
-3.26
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
78
--
Penalty EPA
-9.18
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model83.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+230
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,392
Home Field
+13.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
+12.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.4
Market Regression
-23.8
Final Difference
277.7
Model Spread
-12.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
3
Yards / Game
25
4
Passing Yards / Game
9
12
Rushing Yards / Game
18
3
EPA
EPA / Play
29
6
EPA / Pass
28
8
EPA / Rush
23
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
9
Interceptions / Game
27
7
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
3
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
12
4th Down Efficiency
16
18
RZ Efficiency
21
6
Ravens Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
28
Yards / Game
22
24
Passing Yards / Game
15
8
Rushing Yards / Game
16
32
EPA
EPA / Play
10
27
EPA / Pass
10
28
EPA / Rush
18
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
18
Interceptions / Game
3
28
Fumbles / Game
17
14
Turnover EPA / Game
23
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
19
29
RZ Efficiency
22
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
4-4-2
ATS
3-6-1
O/U