BUFBills
3-4
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
035
NOSaints
5-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
10
0
7
17
Saints
7
14
7
7
35
Spread
-10.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
299
386
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
4.4
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.08
Passing Yards
211
309
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.37
Rushing Yards
88
77
Rush Attempts
25
26
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
21
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-12.99
--
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-23
-23
Sack EPA
-7.73
-6.85
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
45
59
Penalty EPA
-5.19
-8.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
Saints-10.5
Expected Value
+1.6%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+308
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+69.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+84.0
Home QB Adjustment
+7.8
Away QB Adjustment
-76.2
Market Regression
-18.9
Final Difference
270.5
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
T. Lewis
Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-76.2
Value
Ptile
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
4
Yards / Game
19
2
Passing Yards / Game
29
3
Rushing Yards / Game
2
20
EPA
EPA / Play
26
11
EPA / Pass
31
6
EPA / Rush
9
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
25
Interceptions / Game
15
28
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
12
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
5
4th Down Efficiency
30
13
RZ Efficiency
29
16
Saints Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
20
Yards / Game
3
10
Passing Yards / Game
1
7
Rushing Yards / Game
23
27
EPA
EPA / Play
5
8
EPA / Pass
3
2
EPA / Rush
15
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
4
Interceptions / Game
11
2
Fumbles / Game
2
24
Turnover EPA / Game
28
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
14
4th Down Efficiency
16
11
RZ Efficiency
12
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U