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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ saints week 8, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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BUF logo
BUFBills
3-4
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
35
NOSaints
5-1
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
10
0
7
17
Saints
7
14
7
7
35

Spread

NO logo
-10.5

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
299
386
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
4.4
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.08
Passing Yards
211
309
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.37
Rushing Yards
88
77
Rush Attempts
25
26
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
20
21
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-12.99
--
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-23
-23
Sack EPA
-7.73
-6.85
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
45
59
Penalty EPA
-5.19
-8.80

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model82.4%
Spread Pick
NO logo
Saints-10.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.6%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+303
Home nfelo
1,600
Away nfelo
1,450
Home Field
+69.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+84.0
Home QB Adjustment
+7.8
Away QB Adjustment
-76.2
Market Regression
-20.8
Final Difference
268.6
Model Spread
-11.5

Quarterbacks

T. Lewis headshot

T. Lewis

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-76.2
Value
Ptile
12/30
-1.0
42
10/13
1.1
57
10/20
-5.4
17
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Value
Ptile
12/09
0.2
51
12/16
7.9
92
12/23
13.0
99
12/30
8.4
93
09/08
4.5
81
09/15
-5.1
19
09/22
5.9
86
09/30
12.2
98
10/06
7.6
91
10/13
-0.6
46

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Saints Defense
Bills logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
22
4
Yards / Game
19
2
Passing Yards / Game
29
3
Rushing Yards / Game
2
20

EPA

EPA / Play
26
11
EPA / Pass
31
6
EPA / Rush
9
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
25
Interceptions / Game
15
28
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
12
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
5
4th Down Efficiency
30
13
RZ Efficiency
29
16
Saints Offense vs Bills Defense
Saints logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
11
20
Yards / Game
3
10
Passing Yards / Game
1
7
Rushing Yards / Game
23
27

EPA

EPA / Play
5
8
EPA / Pass
3
2
EPA / Rush
15
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
4
Interceptions / Game
11
2
Fumbles / Game
2
24
Turnover EPA / Game
28
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
14
4th Down Efficiency
16
11
RZ Efficiency
12
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
-33
L
L
O
12/23
-14
L
L
U
12/30
19
W
W
U
09/08
-2
L
W
U
09/15
1
W
W
O
09/22
-7
L
L
O
09/29
3
W
W
U
10/03
-13
L
L
O
10/13
-3
L
W
O
10/20
2
W
W
O
NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
-25
L
L
O
12/16
41
W
W
U
12/23
3
W
W
O
12/30
-6
L
L
O
09/08
6
W
W
U
09/15
2
W
L
U
09/22
24
W
W
U
09/30
21
W
W
O
10/06
8
W
W
U
10/13
-3
L
L
O