BUFBills
6-4
31
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
06
NOSaints
5-5
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
3
14
7
31
Saints
0
0
0
6
6
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
361
190
Total Plays
62
58
Yards / Play
5.8
3.3
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.46
Passing Yards
248
146
Comp/Att
23/28(82%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.41
-0.24
Rushing Yards
113
44
Rush Attempts
32
25
Yards / Rush
3.5
1.8
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.48
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
12
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
62%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.66
-5.04
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-12
-17
Sack EPA
-3.21
-4.03
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
35
24
Penalty EPA
-6.09
-2.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model65.3%
Spread Pick
Saints+7.0
Expected Value
+12.0%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-56
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,647
Home Field
+46.4
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-51.9
Home QB Adjustment
-52.0
Away QB Adjustment
-0.1
Market Regression
+10.2
Final Difference
-109.7
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-52.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
4
Yards / Game
5
6
Passing Yards / Game
30
13
Rushing Yards / Game
6
4
EPA
EPA / Play
2
1
EPA / Pass
5
3
EPA / Rush
1
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
18
Interceptions / Game
19
6
Fumbles / Game
10
18
Turnover EPA / Game
26
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
5
4th Down Efficiency
12
5
RZ Efficiency
2
1
Saints Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
1
Yards / Game
28
1
Passing Yards / Game
31
5
Rushing Yards / Game
16
16
EPA
EPA / Play
28
3
EPA / Pass
24
2
EPA / Rush
27
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
32
Interceptions / Game
12
4
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
18
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
1
4th Down Efficiency
17
15
RZ Efficiency
16
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U