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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ steelers week 10, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
3-6
10
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
46°F
21 mph
23
PITSteelers
2-6
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
46°F
21 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
0
0
7
10
Steelers
0
10
7
6
23

Spread

PIT logo
-3

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
227
300
Total Plays
64
67
Yards / Play
3.5
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.28
-0.07
Passing Yards
132
164
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.38
-0.31
Rushing Yards
95
136
Rush Attempts
22
33
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
21%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.32
-6.60
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-23
-40
Sack EPA
-5.17
-7.54
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
28
--
Penalty EPA
-6.25
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model64.0%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.8
Home QB Adjustment
+0.5
Away QB Adjustment
-5.3
Market Regression
-7.6
Final Difference
99.6
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

E. Manuel headshot

E. Manuel

Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-5.3
Value
Ptile
09/08
3.4
73
09/15
2.5
67
09/22
-5.8
15
09/29
-8.7
5
10/03
-3.6
27
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
Value
Ptile
12/23
-6.6
11
12/30
0.3
51
09/08
-5.5
17
09/16
-1.6
42
09/22
2.6
68
09/29
0.9
56
10/13
3.2
72
10/20
0.5
54
10/27
-5.6
17
11/03
2.0
63

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bills logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
13
Yards / Game
19
13
Passing Yards / Game
29
14
Rushing Yards / Game
2
21

EPA

EPA / Play
26
13
EPA / Pass
31
10
EPA / Rush
9
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
14
Interceptions / Game
15
29
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
12
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
20
4th Down Efficiency
30
17
RZ Efficiency
29
19
Steelers Offense vs Bills Defense
Steelers logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
16
20
Yards / Game
20
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
7
Rushing Yards / Game
27
27

EPA

EPA / Play
18
8
EPA / Pass
9
2
EPA / Rush
29
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
4
Interceptions / Game
13
2
Fumbles / Game
17
24
Turnover EPA / Game
16
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
14
4th Down Efficiency
9
11
RZ Efficiency
20
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
19
W
W
U
09/08
-2
L
W
U
09/15
1
W
W
O
09/22
-7
L
L
O
09/29
3
W
W
U
10/03
-13
L
L
O
10/13
-3
L
W
O
10/20
2
W
W
O
10/27
-18
L
L
O
11/03
-10
L
L
U
PIT logo

Steelers

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
-3
L
L
U
12/30
14
W
W
U
09/08
-7
L
L
U
09/16
-10
L
L
U
09/22
-17
L
L
O
09/29
-7
L
L
O
10/13
13
W
W
U
10/20
3
W
W
U
10/27
-3
L
L
U
11/03
-24
L
L
O