BUFBills
3-6
10
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
46°F
21 mph
23
PITSteelers
2-6
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
46°F
21 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
0
0
7
10
Steelers
0
10
7
6
23
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
227
300
Total Plays
64
67
Yards / Play
3.5
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.28
-0.07
Passing Yards
132
164
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.38
-0.31
Rushing Yards
95
136
Rush Attempts
22
33
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
21%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.32
-6.60
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-23
-40
Sack EPA
-5.17
-7.54
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
28
--
Penalty EPA
-6.25
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model64.1%
Spread Pick
Steelers-3.0
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+139
Home nfelo
1,484
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.8
Home QB Adjustment
+0.5
Away QB Adjustment
-5.3
Market Regression
-7.4
Final Difference
100.7
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manuel
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-5.3
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
13
Yards / Game
19
13
Passing Yards / Game
29
14
Rushing Yards / Game
2
21
EPA
EPA / Play
26
13
EPA / Pass
31
10
EPA / Rush
9
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
14
Interceptions / Game
15
29
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
12
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
20
4th Down Efficiency
30
17
RZ Efficiency
29
19
Steelers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
20
Yards / Game
20
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
7
Rushing Yards / Game
27
27
EPA
EPA / Play
18
8
EPA / Pass
9
2
EPA / Rush
29
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
4
Interceptions / Game
13
2
Fumbles / Game
17
24
Turnover EPA / Game
16
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
14
4th Down Efficiency
9
11
RZ Efficiency
20
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Steelers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U