BUFBills
2-3
13
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
020
HOUTexans
2-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
0
6
7
13
Texans
7
3
0
4
14
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
229
216
Total Plays
58
57
Yards / Play
3.9
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.39
-0.29
Passing Yards
129
142
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.39
-0.70
Rushing Yards
100
74
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
15
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
40%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-11.12
-7.96
Sacks
2
7
Sack Yards
-16
-35
Sack EPA
-3.24
-14.09
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
104
50
Penalty EPA
-12.90
+4.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
Bills+10.0
Expected Value
+3.7%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+170
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,327
Home Field
+46.7
Base HFA
+56.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-9.4
Home QB Adjustment
+31.3
Away QB Adjustment
+40.8
Market Regression
+0.4
Final Difference
222.6
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+40.8
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+31.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
5
Yards / Game
30
14
Passing Yards / Game
32
22
Rushing Yards / Game
8
4
EPA
EPA / Play
31
5
EPA / Pass
31
13
EPA / Rush
20
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
1
Interceptions / Game
31
10
Fumbles / Game
11
4
Turnover EPA / Game
6
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
25
4th Down Efficiency
31
21
RZ Efficiency
16
31
Texans Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
19
Yards / Game
15
2
Passing Yards / Game
10
1
Rushing Yards / Game
7
15
EPA
EPA / Play
15
4
EPA / Pass
13
2
EPA / Rush
21
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
14
Interceptions / Game
6
7
Fumbles / Game
17
2
Turnover EPA / Game
32
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
11
4th Down Efficiency
14
13
RZ Efficiency
28
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
2-8
SU
1-9
ATS
3-7
O/U