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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ texans week 6, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
2-3
13
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
20
HOUTexans
2-3
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
0
6
7
13
Texans
7
3
0
4
14

Spread

BUF logo
+10

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
229
216
Total Plays
58
57
Yards / Play
3.9
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.39
-0.29
Passing Yards
129
142
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.39
-0.70
Rushing Yards
100
74
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
12
15
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
40%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-11.12
-7.96
Sacks
2
7
Sack Yards
-16
-35
Sack EPA
-3.24
-14.09
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
104
50
Penalty EPA
-12.90
+4.55

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills+10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.7%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+174
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,324
Home Field
+47.3
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-9.4
Home QB Adjustment
+31.3
Away QB Adjustment
+40.8
Market Regression
+1.0
Final Difference
223.4
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+40.8
Value
Ptile
09/16
-6.3
12
09/23
4.7
78
09/30
-15.4
0
10/07
-4.9
18
D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+31.3
Value
Ptile
09/24
1.7
66
10/01
9.6
97
10/08
6.5
89
10/15
1.2
61
10/29
5.2
85
09/09
-4.7
19
09/16
2.9
69
09/23
3.8
73
09/30
3.9
74
10/07
7.0
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Texans Defense
Bills logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
30
5
Yards / Game
30
14
Passing Yards / Game
32
22
Rushing Yards / Game
8
4

EPA

EPA / Play
31
5
EPA / Pass
31
13
EPA / Rush
20
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
1
Interceptions / Game
31
10
Fumbles / Game
11
4
Turnover EPA / Game
6
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
25
4th Down Efficiency
31
21
RZ Efficiency
16
31
Texans Offense vs Bills Defense
Texans logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
12
19
Yards / Game
15
2
Passing Yards / Game
10
1
Rushing Yards / Game
7
15

EPA

EPA / Play
15
4
EPA / Pass
13
2
EPA / Rush
21
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
14
Interceptions / Game
6
7
Fumbles / Game
17
2
Turnover EPA / Game
32
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
11
4th Down Efficiency
14
13
RZ Efficiency
28
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
6
W
W
U
12/17
8
W
W
O
12/24
-21
L
L
O
12/31
6
W
W
U
01/07
-7
L
W
U
09/09
-44
L
L
O
09/16
-11
L
L
O
09/23
21
W
W
U
09/30
-22
L
L
U
10/07
1
W
W
U
HOU logo

Texans

2-8
SU
1-9
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
-11
L
L
U
12/10
-10
L
L
U
12/17
-38
L
L
O
12/25
-28
L
L
U
12/31
-9
L
L
U
09/09
-7
L
L
U
09/16
-3
L
L
U
09/23
-5
L
L
O
09/30
3
W
W
O
10/07
3
W
L
U