BUFBills
2-2
14
TBD
Nissan Stadium
67°F
5 mph
13
TENTitans
1-2
TBD
Nissan Stadium
67°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
0
7
7
14
Titans
0
3
7
3
13
Spread
+0
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
209
276
Total Plays
50
62
Yards / Play
4.2
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.04
Passing Yards
82
179
Comp/Att
11/18(61%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.06
Rushing Yards
127
97
Rush Attempts
28
28
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
17
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+3.36
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-31
-8
Sack EPA
-7.44
-3.63
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
62
74
Penalty EPA
-7.95
-9.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
N/A
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model54.4%
Spread Pick
BillsN/A
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-64
Home nfelo
1,363
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+91.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+26.1
Home QB Adjustment
+10.4
Away QB Adjustment
-15.7
Market Regression
+37.6
Final Difference
-30.7
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-15.7
Value
Ptile
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
27
Yards / Game
13
12
Passing Yards / Game
28
15
Rushing Yards / Game
1
18
EPA
EPA / Play
12
23
EPA / Pass
14
28
EPA / Rush
2
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
1
Interceptions / Game
5
20
Fumbles / Game
11
29
Turnover EPA / Game
32
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
25
4th Down Efficiency
24
5
RZ Efficiency
26
26
Titans Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
15
Yards / Game
30
20
Passing Yards / Game
22
22
Rushing Yards / Game
25
16
EPA
EPA / Play
31
16
EPA / Pass
30
15
EPA / Rush
25
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
11
Interceptions / Game
24
6
Fumbles / Game
32
15
Turnover EPA / Game
5
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
23
4th Down Efficiency
22
1
RZ Efficiency
5
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Titans
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U