BUFBills
4-1
31
TBD
Nissan Stadium
66°F
6 mph
34
TENTitans
3-2
TBD
Nissan Stadium
66°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
17
11
0
31
Titans
0
17
7
10
34
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
419
362
Total Plays
74
51
Yards / Play
5.7
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.28
Passing Yards
337
--
Comp/Att
35/48(73%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.31
+0.24
Rushing Yards
82
146
Rush Attempts
23
22
Yards / Rush
3.6
6.6
EPA / Rush
-0.26
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
16
Passing 1st downs
22
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
54%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.84
-4.36
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-18
--
Sack EPA
-1.75
--
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
60
91
Penalty EPA
-5.56
-10.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
Titans+6.0
Expected Value
+0.2%
Cover Probability
50.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-88
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,661
Home Field
+63.4
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.5
Time Adj
+7.4
Net QB Adjustment
-33.1
Home QB Adjustment
-13.7
Away QB Adjustment
+19.5
Market Regression
+1.8
Final Difference
-123.5
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+19.5
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-13.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
6
Yards / Game
5
11
Passing Yards / Game
30
30
Rushing Yards / Game
6
1
EPA
EPA / Play
2
8
EPA / Pass
5
10
EPA / Rush
1
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
8
Interceptions / Game
19
11
Fumbles / Game
10
28
Turnover EPA / Game
26
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
6
4th Down Efficiency
12
21
RZ Efficiency
2
4
Titans Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
1
Yards / Game
17
1
Passing Yards / Game
20
5
Rushing Yards / Game
5
16
EPA
EPA / Play
17
3
EPA / Pass
16
2
EPA / Rush
10
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
32
Interceptions / Game
25
4
Fumbles / Game
27
10
Turnover EPA / Game
10
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
1
4th Down Efficiency
8
15
RZ Efficiency
9
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Titans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U