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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ 49ers week 14, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DEN logo
DENBroncos
6-6
14
TBD
Levi's Stadium
54°F
3 mph
20
SF49ers
2-10
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
54°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
7
7
14
49ers
3
17
0
0
20

Spread

SF logo
+3

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
274
389
Total Plays
71
66
Yards / Play
3.9
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.01
Passing Yards
171
305
Comp/Att
24/42(57%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
9.2
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.23
Rushing Yards
103
84
Rush Attempts
27
30
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
5
6
3rd Down %
13%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.65
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-27
Sack EPA
-3.81
-5.49
Penalties
11
11
Penalty Yards
62
87
Penalty EPA
-7.21
-10.86

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-76
Home nfelo
1,445
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+47.5
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-86.8
Home QB Adjustment
-84.0
Away QB Adjustment
+2.8
Market Regression
+44.3
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Value
Ptile
09/23
-4.5
20
10/01
-6.2
12
10/07
2.9
69
10/14
1.8
60
10/18
-4.0
22
10/28
-1.8
34
11/04
1.3
56
11/18
-0.4
43
11/25
-1.1
38
12/02
-3.9
23
N. Mullens headshot

N. Mullens

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-84.0
Value
Ptile
11/01
4.6
78
11/12
-1.0
39
11/25
-9.5
4
12/02
2.8
69

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs 49ers Defense
Broncos logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
28
Yards / Game
19
13
Passing Yards / Game
14
20
Rushing Yards / Game
11
13

EPA

EPA / Play
22
26
EPA / Pass
26
28
EPA / Rush
8
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
9
Interceptions / Game
23
32
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
21
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
21
4th Down Efficiency
10
18
RZ Efficiency
18
26
49ers Offense vs Broncos Defense
49ers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
22
12
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
16
28
Rushing Yards / Game
12
22

EPA

EPA / Play
21
10
EPA / Pass
20
17
EPA / Rush
28
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
23
Interceptions / Game
30
3
Fumbles / Game
25
15
Turnover EPA / Game
1
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
17
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
32
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
-13
L
L
U
10/01
-4
L
L
U
10/07
-18
L
L
O
10/14
-3
L
W
U
10/18
35
W
W
O
10/28
-7
L
W
P
11/04
-2
L
L
U
11/18
1
W
W
U
11/25
7
W
W
U
12/02
14
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
-11
L
L
O
09/30
-2
L
W
O
10/07
-10
L
L
O
10/15
-3
L
W
O
10/21
-29
L
L
U
10/28
-3
L
L
U
11/01
31
W
W
U
11/12
-4
L
L
O
11/25
-18
L
L
U
12/02
-27
L
L
O