DENBroncos
6-6
14
TBD
Levi's Stadium
54°F
3 mph
20
SF49ers
2-10
TBD
Levi's Stadium
54°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
7
7
14
49ers
3
17
0
0
20
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
274
389
Total Plays
71
66
Yards / Play
3.9
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.01
Passing Yards
171
305
Comp/Att
24/42(57%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
9.2
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.23
Rushing Yards
103
84
Rush Attempts
27
30
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
5
6
3rd Down %
13%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.65
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-27
Sack EPA
-3.81
-5.49
Penalties
11
11
Penalty Yards
62
87
Penalty EPA
-7.21
-10.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-74
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+47.0
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-86.8
Home QB Adjustment
-84.0
Away QB Adjustment
+2.8
Market Regression
+43.3
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
N. Mullens
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-84.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
28
Yards / Game
19
13
Passing Yards / Game
14
20
Rushing Yards / Game
11
13
EPA
EPA / Play
22
26
EPA / Pass
26
28
EPA / Rush
8
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
9
Interceptions / Game
23
32
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
21
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
21
4th Down Efficiency
10
18
RZ Efficiency
18
26
49ers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
12
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
16
28
Rushing Yards / Game
12
22
EPA
EPA / Play
21
10
EPA / Pass
20
17
EPA / Rush
28
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
23
Interceptions / Game
30
3
Fumbles / Game
25
15
Turnover EPA / Game
1
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
17
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
32
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
49ers
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U