DENBroncos
0-3
31
TBD
Soldier Field
80°F
2 mph
28
CHIBears
0-3
TBD
Soldier Field
80°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
0
7
11
25
Bears
0
21
7
0
28
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
311
471
Total Plays
48
70
Yards / Play
6.5
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.08
Passing Yards
214
300
Comp/Att
21/28(75%)
28/35(80%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.51
+0.20
Rushing Yards
97
171
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
5.1
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
26
Passing 1st downs
9
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
55%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.35
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-9
-35
Sack EPA
-1.42
-13.08
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
39
91
Penalty EPA
-5.04
-6.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-84
Home nfelo
1,362
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+50.5
Base HFA
+42.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-25.4
Home QB Adjustment
-13.4
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-13.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
19
Yards / Game
26
12
Passing Yards / Game
13
9
Rushing Yards / Game
19
1
EPA
EPA / Play
20
8
EPA / Pass
20
18
EPA / Rush
19
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
7
Interceptions / Game
4
1
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
15
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
29
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
19
31
Bears Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
27
Yards / Game
21
29
Passing Yards / Game
23
14
Rushing Yards / Game
2
30
EPA
EPA / Play
23
24
EPA / Pass
25
26
EPA / Rush
3
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
6
Interceptions / Game
22
19
Fumbles / Game
16
1
Turnover EPA / Game
10
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
2
4th Down Efficiency
16
10
RZ Efficiency
14
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bears
0-10
SU
1-8-1
ATS
7-3
O/U