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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ bears week 4, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
0-3
31
TBD
Soldier Field
80°F
2 mph
28
CHIBears
0-3
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
80°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
0
7
11
25
Bears
0
21
7
0
28

Spread

DEN logo
CHI logo
3
P

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
311
471
Total Plays
48
70
Yards / Play
6.5
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.08
Passing Yards
214
300
Comp/Att
21/28(75%)
28/35(80%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.51
+0.20
Rushing Yards
97
171
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
5.1
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
17
26
Passing 1st downs
9
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
55%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.35
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-9
-35
Sack EPA
-1.42
-13.08
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
39
91
Penalty EPA
-5.04
-6.97

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-82
Home nfelo
1,363
Away nfelo
1,470
Home Field
+50.5
Base HFA
+42.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-25.4
Home QB Adjustment
-13.4
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Value
Ptile
11/20
-2.3
34
11/27
-5.3
16
12/04
-0.5
48
12/11
-0.2
51
12/25
-10.1
2
01/01
1.1
60
01/08
2.3
71
09/10
1.5
59
09/17
0.2
51
09/24
0.2
51
J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-13.4
Value
Ptile
11/06
12.8
99
11/13
8.1
93
11/20
-2.0
38
12/04
6.4
90
12/18
2.2
70
12/24
-2.3
34
01/01
-8.3
5
09/10
-0.6
45
09/17
-8.8
5
09/24
-6.5
12

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Bears Defense
Broncos logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
20
19
Yards / Game
26
12
Passing Yards / Game
13
9
Rushing Yards / Game
19
1

EPA

EPA / Play
20
8
EPA / Pass
20
18
EPA / Rush
19
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
7
Interceptions / Game
4
1
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
15
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
29
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
19
31
Bears Offense vs Broncos Defense
Bears logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
19
27
Yards / Game
21
29
Passing Yards / Game
23
14
Rushing Yards / Game
2
30

EPA

EPA / Play
23
24
EPA / Pass
25
26
EPA / Rush
3
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
6
Interceptions / Game
22
19
Fumbles / Game
16
1
Turnover EPA / Game
10
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
2
4th Down Efficiency
16
10
RZ Efficiency
14
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
-13
L
L
U
12/04
-1
L
W
U
12/11
-6
L
W
O
12/18
9
W
W
O
12/25
-37
L
L
O
01/01
-3
L
W
O
01/08
3
W
L
O
09/10
-1
L
L
U
09/17
-2
L
L
O
09/24
-50
L
L
O
CHI logo

Bears

0-10
SU
1-8-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
-3
L
P
O
11/27
-21
L
L
O
12/04
-9
L
L
O
12/18
-5
L
W
U
12/24
-22
L
L
O
01/01
-31
L
L
U
01/08
-16
L
L
U
09/10
-18
L
L
O
09/17
-10
L
L
O
09/24
-31
L
L
O