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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ bengals week 3, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
2-0
29
TBD
Paycor Stadium
81°F
3 mph
17
CINBengals
1-1
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
81°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
13
0
13
29
Bengals
7
7
0
3
17

Spread

DEN logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
355
332
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
5.8
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.05
Passing Yards
303
189
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.39
-0.19
Rushing Yards
52
143
Rush Attempts
24
29
Yards / Rush
2.2
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.34
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
+0.70
-4.29
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-9
-17
Sack EPA
-2.68
-4.24
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
41
69
Penalty EPA
-5.01
-8.73

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model65.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+144
Home nfelo
1,599
Away nfelo
1,594
Home Field
+99.3
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+20.8
Net QB Adjustment
+39.4
Home QB Adjustment
+8.9
Away QB Adjustment
-30.5
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
109.8
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

T. Siemian headshot

T. Siemian

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-30.5
Value
Ptile
09/08
-2.8
27
09/18
-0.6
44
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
Value
Ptile
10/18
6.1
87
11/01
-6.6
9
11/05
4.0
78
11/16
-5.3
13
11/22
2.3
66
11/29
4.5
81
12/06
5.1
82
12/13
-7.2
6
09/11
-1.0
40
09/18
3.9
77

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Bengals Defense
Broncos logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
21
7
Yards / Game
27
17
Passing Yards / Game
19
25
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21

EPA

EPA / Play
25
22
EPA / Pass
23
14
EPA / Rush
30
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
7
Interceptions / Game
12
4
Fumbles / Game
31
27
Turnover EPA / Game
18
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
16
4th Down Efficiency
11
14
RZ Efficiency
27
8
Bengals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Bengals logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
24
3
Yards / Game
12
4
Passing Yards / Game
9
5
Rushing Yards / Game
13
28

EPA

EPA / Play
10
1
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
5
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
9
Interceptions / Game
6
14
Fumbles / Game
7
2
Turnover EPA / Game
27
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
5
4th Down Efficiency
3
8
RZ Efficiency
18
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
14
W
W
U
12/13
-3
L
L
U
12/20
-7
L
W
O
12/28
3
W
L
U
01/03
7
W
L
O
01/17
7
W
P
U
01/24
2
W
W
U
02/07
14
W
W
U
09/08
1
W
W
O
09/18
14
W
W
O
CIN logo

Bengals

5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-3
L
W
O
11/29
24
W
W
U
12/06
34
W
W
U
12/13
-13
L
L
O
12/20
10
W
W
U
12/28
-3
L
W
U
01/03
8
W
L
U
01/09
-2
L
P
U
09/11
1
W
W
O
09/18
-8
L
L
U