DENBroncos
2-0
29
TBD
Paycor Stadium
81°F
3 mph
17
CINBengals
1-1
TBD
Paycor Stadium
81°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
13
0
13
29
Bengals
7
7
0
3
17
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
355
332
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
5.8
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.05
Passing Yards
303
189
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.39
-0.19
Rushing Yards
52
143
Rush Attempts
24
29
Yards / Rush
2.2
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.34
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
+0.70
-4.29
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-9
-17
Sack EPA
-2.68
-4.24
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
41
69
Penalty EPA
-5.01
-8.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model65.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+144
Home nfelo
1,599
Away nfelo
1,594
Home Field
+99.3
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+20.8
Net QB Adjustment
+39.4
Home QB Adjustment
+8.9
Away QB Adjustment
-30.5
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
109.8
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-30.5
Value
Ptile
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
7
Yards / Game
27
17
Passing Yards / Game
19
25
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21
EPA
EPA / Play
25
22
EPA / Pass
23
14
EPA / Rush
30
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
7
Interceptions / Game
12
4
Fumbles / Game
31
27
Turnover EPA / Game
18
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
16
4th Down Efficiency
11
14
RZ Efficiency
27
8
Bengals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
3
Yards / Game
12
4
Passing Yards / Game
9
5
Rushing Yards / Game
13
28
EPA
EPA / Play
10
1
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
5
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
9
Interceptions / Game
6
14
Fumbles / Game
7
2
Turnover EPA / Game
27
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
5
4th Down Efficiency
3
8
RZ Efficiency
18
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U