DEN logo
DEN
2-0
29
17
CIN
1-1
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
81°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
13
0
13
29
Bengals
7
7
0
3
17

Spread

DEN logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
355
332
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
5.8
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.05
Passing Yards
303
189
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.39
-0.19
Rushing Yards
52
143
Rush Attempts
24
29
Yards / Rush
2.2
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.34
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
+0.70
-4.29
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-9
-17
Sack EPA
-2.68
-4.24
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
41
69
Penalty EPA
-5.01
-8.73

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model65.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,594
Home Field
+98.0
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+20.6
Net QB Adjustment
+39.4
Home QB Adjustment
+8.9
Away QB Adjustment
-30.5
Market Regression
+7.3
Final Difference
108.4
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

T. Siemian headshot

T. Siemian

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-30.5

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Bengals Defense
Broncos logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
21
7
Yards / Game
27
17
Passing Yards / Game
19
25
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21

EPA

EPA / Play
25
22
EPA / Pass
23
14
EPA / Rush
30
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
7
Interceptions / Game
12
4
Fumbles / Game
31
27
Turnover EPA / Game
18
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
16
4th Down Efficiency
11
14
RZ Efficiency
27
8
Bengals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Bengals logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
24
3
Yards / Game
12
4
Passing Yards / Game
9
5
Rushing Yards / Game
13
28

EPA

EPA / Play
10
1
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
5
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
9
Interceptions / Game
6
14
Fumbles / Game
7
2
Turnover EPA / Game
27
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
5
4th Down Efficiency
3
8
RZ Efficiency
18
9