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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ bengals week 9, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
4-3
31
TBD
Paycor Stadium
48°F
1 mph
23
CINBengals
3-4
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
48°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
7
7
14
31
Bengals
0
3
10
10
23

Spread

DEN logo
-5

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
359
366
Total Plays
61
72
Yards / Play
5.9
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.32
+0.11
Passing Yards
--
275
Comp/Att
27/35(77%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.42
+0.07
Rushing Yards
68
91
Rush Attempts
26
25
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
64%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.52
-1.37
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
--
-5.89
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
29
83
Penalty EPA
-4.18
-6.38

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market67.5%
Model63.3%
Spread Pick
CIN logo
Bengals+5.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
54.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-43
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,585
Home Field
+124.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-33.2
Home QB Adjustment
+5.8
Away QB Adjustment
+39.0
Market Regression
-3.1
Final Difference
-94.8
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+39.0
Value
Ptile
12/26
1.0
55
01/02
4.2
77
01/08
3.6
73
09/09
4.2
76
09/17
-5.7
14
09/23
2.2
63
09/30
10.2
96
10/07
8.1
93
10/15
7.0
90
10/28
7.6
92
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
Value
Ptile
12/24
2.8
72
01/01
0.2
53
01/07
-5.4
16
09/10
-4.0
25
09/16
2.4
65
09/23
5.9
87
09/30
4.1
75
10/07
-3.0
29
10/14
3.0
70
10/21
-4.2
23

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Bengals Defense
Broncos logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
2
8
Yards / Game
4
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
8
Rushing Yards / Game
15
14

EPA

EPA / Play
4
4
EPA / Pass
2
3
EPA / Rush
26
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
7
Interceptions / Game
8
17
Fumbles / Game
27
4
Turnover EPA / Game
12
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
10
4th Down Efficiency
3
7
RZ Efficiency
4
5
Bengals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Bengals logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
13
4
Yards / Game
23
2
Passing Yards / Game
22
19
Rushing Yards / Game
18
4

EPA

EPA / Play
17
3
EPA / Pass
23
6
EPA / Rush
8
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
31
Interceptions / Game
18
14
Fumbles / Game
18
21
Turnover EPA / Game
19
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
1
4th Down Efficiency
3
5
RZ Efficiency
18
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-4
L
L
U
01/08
6
W
W
O
01/14
-35
L
L
O
09/09
12
W
W
O
09/17
-6
L
L
U
09/23
-6
L
L
O
09/30
31
W
W
U
10/07
-10
L
L
O
10/15
11
W
W
O
10/28
20
W
W
U
CIN logo

Bengals

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
7
W
W
U
01/01
-8
L
L
O
01/07
-21
L
L
O
09/10
-31
L
L
O
09/16
7
W
P
O
09/23
7
W
W
O
09/30
17
W
W
U
10/07
-4
L
L
U
10/14
-10
L
L
O
10/21
-7
L
L
U