DENBroncos
4-3
31
TBD
Paycor Stadium
48°F
1 mph
23
CINBengals
3-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
48°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
7
7
14
31
Bengals
0
3
10
10
23
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
366
Total Plays
61
72
Yards / Play
5.9
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.32
+0.11
Passing Yards
--
275
Comp/Att
27/35(77%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.42
+0.07
Rushing Yards
68
91
Rush Attempts
26
25
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
64%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.52
-1.37
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
--
-5.89
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
29
83
Penalty EPA
-4.18
-6.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model63.4%
Spread Pick
Bengals+5.0
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
54.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-44
Home nfelo
1,454
Away nfelo
1,590
Home Field
+124.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-33.2
Home QB Adjustment
+5.8
Away QB Adjustment
+39.0
Market Regression
-3.6
Final Difference
-95.3
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+39.0
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
8
Yards / Game
4
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
8
Rushing Yards / Game
15
14
EPA
EPA / Play
4
4
EPA / Pass
2
3
EPA / Rush
26
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
7
Interceptions / Game
8
17
Fumbles / Game
27
4
Turnover EPA / Game
12
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
10
4th Down Efficiency
3
7
RZ Efficiency
4
5
Bengals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
4
Yards / Game
23
2
Passing Yards / Game
22
19
Rushing Yards / Game
18
4
EPA
EPA / Play
17
3
EPA / Pass
23
6
EPA / Rush
8
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
31
Interceptions / Game
18
14
Fumbles / Game
18
21
Turnover EPA / Game
19
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
1
4th Down Efficiency
3
5
RZ Efficiency
18
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U