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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ bengals week 13, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DEN logo
DENBroncos
5-6
24
TBD
Paycor Stadium
63°F
12 mph
10
CINBengals
5-6
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
63°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
14
3
24
Bengals
0
3
7
0
10

Spread

DEN logo
-4

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
361
313
Total Plays
57
64
Yards / Play
6.3
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.19
Passing Yards
143
202
Comp/Att
12/21(57%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.24
Rushing Yards
218
111
Rush Attempts
34
23
Yards / Rush
6.4
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
+1.00
-9.18
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-8
-34
Sack EPA
-3.67
-9.78
Penalties
7
12
Penalty Yards
60
100
Penalty EPA
-6.95
-9.73

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-56
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+98.8
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+20.7
Net QB Adjustment
-118.4
Home QB Adjustment
-111.1
Away QB Adjustment
+7.3
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
Value
Ptile
09/16
-1.7
35
09/23
-4.5
20
10/01
-6.2
12
10/07
2.9
69
10/14
1.8
60
10/18
-4.0
22
10/28
-1.8
34
11/04
1.3
56
11/18
-0.4
43
11/25
-1.1
38
J. Driskel headshot

J. Driskel

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-111.1
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Bengals Defense
Broncos logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
24
30
Yards / Game
19
32
Passing Yards / Game
14
10
Rushing Yards / Game
11
29

EPA

EPA / Play
22
29
EPA / Pass
26
29
EPA / Rush
8
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
19
Interceptions / Game
23
20
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
21
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
32
4th Down Efficiency
10
26
RZ Efficiency
18
25
Bengals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Bengals logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
17
12
Yards / Game
26
22
Passing Yards / Game
22
28
Rushing Yards / Game
21
22

EPA

EPA / Play
18
10
EPA / Pass
18
17
EPA / Rush
19
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
23
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
1
15
Turnover EPA / Game
24
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
17
4th Down Efficiency
18
13
RZ Efficiency
3
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
1
W
L
U
09/23
-13
L
L
U
10/01
-4
L
L
U
10/07
-18
L
L
O
10/14
-3
L
W
U
10/18
35
W
W
O
10/28
-7
L
W
P
11/04
-2
L
L
U
11/18
1
W
W
U
11/25
7
W
W
U
CIN logo

Bengals

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
11
W
W
O
09/23
-10
L
L
O
09/30
1
W
W
O
10/07
10
W
W
U
10/14
-7
L
L
U
10/21
-35
L
L
U
10/28
3
W
L
O
11/11
-37
L
L
O
11/18
-3
L
W
O
11/25
-15
L
L
O