DENBroncos
5-6
24
TBD
Paycor Stadium
63°F
12 mph
10
CINBengals
5-6
TBD
Paycor Stadium
63°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
14
3
24
Bengals
0
3
7
0
10
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
361
313
Total Plays
57
64
Yards / Play
6.3
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.19
Passing Yards
143
202
Comp/Att
12/21(57%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.24
Rushing Yards
218
111
Rush Attempts
34
23
Yards / Rush
6.4
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
+1.00
-9.18
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-8
-34
Sack EPA
-3.67
-9.78
Penalties
7
12
Penalty Yards
60
100
Penalty EPA
-6.95
-9.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-54
Home nfelo
1,432
Away nfelo
1,465
Home Field
+97.6
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+20.5
Net QB Adjustment
-118.4
Home QB Adjustment
-111.1
Away QB Adjustment
+7.3
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
J. Driskel
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-111.1
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
30
Yards / Game
19
32
Passing Yards / Game
14
10
Rushing Yards / Game
11
29
EPA
EPA / Play
22
29
EPA / Pass
26
29
EPA / Rush
8
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
19
Interceptions / Game
23
20
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
21
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
32
4th Down Efficiency
10
26
RZ Efficiency
18
25
Bengals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
12
Yards / Game
26
22
Passing Yards / Game
22
28
Rushing Yards / Game
21
22
EPA
EPA / Play
18
10
EPA / Pass
18
17
EPA / Rush
19
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
23
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
1
15
Turnover EPA / Game
24
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
17
4th Down Efficiency
18
13
RZ Efficiency
3
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Bengals
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U