DENBroncos
3-5
24
TBD
New Era Field
49°F
10 mph
22
BUFBills
5-4
TBD
New Era Field
49°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
12
0
9
24
Bills
0
8
7
7
22
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
371
Total Plays
72
53
Yards / Play
4.2
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.15
Passing Yards
178
--
Comp/Att
24/29(83%)
15/27(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.34
Rushing Yards
122
192
Rush Attempts
39
26
Yards / Rush
3.1
7.4
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
12
6
Rushing 1st downs
5
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
42%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
19
8
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.37
-17.08
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-5.19
--
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
61
63
Penalty EPA
-5.89
-6.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+182
Home nfelo
1,609
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+9.3
Base HFA
+43.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-34.0
Surface Adj
+15.3
Time Adj
-15.7
Net QB Adjustment
+18.4
Home QB Adjustment
+20.3
Away QB Adjustment
+1.9
Market Regression
-31.5
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+20.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
3
Yards / Game
26
8
Passing Yards / Game
13
13
Rushing Yards / Game
19
15
EPA
EPA / Play
20
11
EPA / Pass
20
6
EPA / Rush
19
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
32
Interceptions / Game
4
5
Fumbles / Game
27
3
Turnover EPA / Game
15
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
18
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
19
18
Bills Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
27
Yards / Game
5
29
Passing Yards / Game
19
14
Rushing Yards / Game
5
30
EPA
EPA / Play
3
24
EPA / Pass
6
26
EPA / Rush
1
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
6
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
15
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
2
4th Down Efficiency
7
10
RZ Efficiency
4
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U