DENBroncos
8-6
14
TBD
New Era Field
30°F
2 mph
40
BUFBills
5-9
TBD
New Era Field
30°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
0
7
0
14
Bills
0
11
6
5
22
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
285
351
Total Plays
68
56
Yards / Play
4.2
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.40
-0.03
Passing Yards
152
191
Comp/Att
13/29(45%)
15/27(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.84
-0.13
Rushing Yards
133
160
Rush Attempts
35
28
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
8
6
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
15%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
2
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
17%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-21.95
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-33
-5
Sack EPA
-11.83
-2.11
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
58
69
Penalty EPA
-4.97
-5.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model49.5%
Spread Pick
Bills+3.0
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,424
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-12.3
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+13.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
3.4
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
T. Tebow
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
30
Yards / Game
20
25
Passing Yards / Game
32
1
Rushing Yards / Game
1
28
EPA
EPA / Play
23
26
EPA / Pass
27
21
EPA / Rush
10
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
32
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
32
12
Turnover EPA / Game
9
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
21
4th Down Efficiency
28
31
RZ Efficiency
26
32
Bills Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
26
Yards / Game
14
23
Passing Yards / Game
15
24
Rushing Yards / Game
14
23
EPA
EPA / Play
17
22
EPA / Pass
19
24
EPA / Rush
6
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
11
Interceptions / Game
31
27
Fumbles / Game
2
22
Turnover EPA / Game
10
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
8
4th Down Efficiency
16
6
RZ Efficiency
11
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U