nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ bills week 16, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

DEN logo
DENBroncos
8-6
14
TBD
New Era Field
30°F
2 mph
40
BUFBills
5-9
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
30°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
0
7
0
14
Bills
0
11
6
5
22

Spread

BUF logo
+3

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
285
351
Total Plays
68
56
Yards / Play
4.2
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.40
-0.03
Passing Yards
152
191
Comp/Att
13/29(45%)
15/27(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.84
-0.13
Rushing Yards
133
160
Rush Attempts
35
28
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
8
6
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
15%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
2
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
17%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-21.95
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-33
-5
Sack EPA
-11.83
-2.11
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
58
69
Penalty EPA
-4.97
-5.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model49.4%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+69
Home nfelo
1,424
Away nfelo
1,450
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-12.3
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+13.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
4.0
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

T. Tebow headshot

T. Tebow

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
Value
Ptile
01/02
2.3
64
10/23
-3.1
30
10/30
-7.2
9
11/06
6.5
88
11/13
0.8
58
11/17
2.4
69
11/27
-0.1
51
12/04
0.5
55
12/11
-3.8
26
12/18
3.8
76
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Value
Ptile
10/09
0.8
57
10/16
-0.8
46
10/30
2.8
72
11/06
-2.0
36
11/13
-4.4
22
11/20
-7.1
9
11/27
7.3
92
12/04
2.5
69
12/11
-7.8
7
12/18
-0.5
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Bills Defense
Broncos logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
25
30
Yards / Game
20
25
Passing Yards / Game
32
1
Rushing Yards / Game
1
28

EPA

EPA / Play
23
26
EPA / Pass
27
21
EPA / Rush
10
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
32
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
32
12
Turnover EPA / Game
9
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
21
4th Down Efficiency
28
31
RZ Efficiency
26
32
Bills Offense vs Broncos Defense
Bills logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
13
26
Yards / Game
14
23
Passing Yards / Game
15
24
Rushing Yards / Game
14
23

EPA

EPA / Play
17
22
EPA / Pass
19
24
EPA / Rush
6
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
11
Interceptions / Game
31
27
Fumbles / Game
2
22
Turnover EPA / Game
10
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
8
4th Down Efficiency
16
6
RZ Efficiency
11
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-5
L
L
O
10/23
3
W
W
U
10/30
-35
L
L
O
11/06
14
W
W
O
11/13
7
W
W
U
11/17
4
W
W
U
11/27
3
W
W
U
12/04
3
W
W
O
12/11
3
W
L
U
12/18
-18
L
L
O
BUF logo

Bills

2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
7
W
W
O
10/16
-3
L
P
O
10/30
23
W
W
U
11/06
-16
L
L
U
11/13
-37
L
L
O
11/20
-27
L
L
U
11/27
-4
L
W
O
12/04
-6
L
L
U
12/11
-27
L
L
U
12/18
-7
L
L
O