DENBroncos
10-7
7
TBD
New Era Field
32°F
10 mph
31
BUFBills
13-4
TBD
New Era Field
32°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
0
0
0
7
Bills
3
7
11
10
31
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
224
473
Total Plays
42
73
Yards / Play
5.3
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.28
Passing Yards
145
263
Comp/Att
14/23(61%)
20/27(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
9.7
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.59
Rushing Yards
79
210
Rush Attempts
17
44
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
26
Passing 1st downs
7
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
22%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
15
Red Zone %
0%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-11
Sack EPA
-2.73
-2.45
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
27
45
Penalty EPA
-2.77
-1.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model65.1%
Spread Pick
Broncos+7.5
Expected Value
+17.5%
Cover Probability
61.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+45
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,620
Home Field
+66.4
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
+13.9
Net QB Adjustment
-10.3
Home QB Adjustment
+29.0
Away QB Adjustment
+39.4
Market Regression
-55.7
Final Difference
108.1
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+39.4
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+29.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
12
Yards / Game
22
16
Passing Yards / Game
27
24
Rushing Yards / Game
17
13
EPA
EPA / Play
12
14
EPA / Pass
16
23
EPA / Rush
15
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
32
Interceptions / Game
15
10
Fumbles / Game
12
2
Turnover EPA / Game
25
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
30
4th Down Efficiency
9
14
RZ Efficiency
8
17
Bills Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
3
Yards / Game
10
10
Passing Yards / Game
32
30
Rushing Yards / Game
9
5
EPA
EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
3
2
EPA / Rush
3
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
29
Interceptions / Game
2
11
Fumbles / Game
1
13
Turnover EPA / Game
32
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
13
4th Down Efficiency
2
15
RZ Efficiency
2
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
7-2-1
O/U