DENBroncos
3-3
14
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
59°F
27 mph
17
CLEBrowns
3-3
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
59°F
27 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
7
7
14
Browns
10
0
7
0
17
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
223
376
Total Plays
49
67
Yards / Play
4.6
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.10
Passing Yards
182
194
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.14
Rushing Yards
41
182
Rush Attempts
14
33
Yards / Rush
2.9
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
45%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.40
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-5
-5
Sack EPA
-2.94
-1.25
Penalties
2
9
Penalty Yards
--
60
Penalty EPA
--
-6.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+48
Home nfelo
1,566
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+26.4
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-14.8
Net QB Adjustment
-43.9
Home QB Adjustment
-37.1
Away QB Adjustment
+6.8
Market Regression
-79.9
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+6.8
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-37.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
14
Yards / Game
19
3
Passing Yards / Game
11
8
Rushing Yards / Game
13
11
EPA
EPA / Play
15
21
EPA / Pass
13
11
EPA / Rush
23
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
6
Interceptions / Game
5
17
Fumbles / Game
13
30
Turnover EPA / Game
25
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
14
4th Down Efficiency
14
27
RZ Efficiency
21
28
Browns Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
2
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
28
12
Rushing Yards / Game
4
14
EPA
EPA / Play
20
19
EPA / Pass
22
16
EPA / Rush
4
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
12
Interceptions / Game
14
17
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
21
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
28
4th Down Efficiency
30
4
RZ Efficiency
12
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U