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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ browns week 7, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
3-3
14
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
59°F
27 mph
17
CLEBrowns
3-3
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
59°F
27 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
7
7
14
Browns
10
0
7
0
17

Spread

CLE logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
223
376
Total Plays
49
67
Yards / Play
4.6
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.10
Passing Yards
182
194
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.14
Rushing Yards
41
182
Rush Attempts
14
33
Yards / Rush
2.9
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
45%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.40
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-5
-5
Sack EPA
-2.94
-1.25
Penalties
2
9
Penalty Yards
--
60
Penalty EPA
--
-6.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+44
Home nfelo
1,564
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+26.4
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-14.8
Net QB Adjustment
-43.9
Home QB Adjustment
-37.1
Away QB Adjustment
+6.8
Market Regression
-79.0
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+6.8
Value
Ptile
12/13
3.8
72
12/19
1.3
52
12/27
-5.4
13
01/03
-7.2
7
09/12
5.2
84
09/19
2.5
71
09/26
-0.5
48
10/03
-6.8
12
10/10
2.0
68
10/17
-2.0
38
C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-37.1
Value
Ptile
12/24
-2.3
32
12/30
1.8
60
09/08
7.9
93
09/15
2.3
68
09/23
-1.5
43
09/29
-9.6
5
10/13
-1.7
41
10/20
-5.7
16
10/24
-4.6
22
12/29
-6.5
14

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Browns Defense
Broncos logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
23
14
Yards / Game
19
3
Passing Yards / Game
11
8
Rushing Yards / Game
13
11

EPA

EPA / Play
15
21
EPA / Pass
13
11
EPA / Rush
23
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
6
Interceptions / Game
5
17
Fumbles / Game
13
30
Turnover EPA / Game
25
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
14
4th Down Efficiency
14
27
RZ Efficiency
21
28
Browns Offense vs Broncos Defense
Browns logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
20
2
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
28
12
Rushing Yards / Game
4
14

EPA

EPA / Play
20
19
EPA / Pass
22
16
EPA / Rush
4
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
12
Interceptions / Game
14
17
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
21
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
28
4th Down Efficiency
30
4
RZ Efficiency
12
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
5
W
W
O
12/19
-29
L
L
O
12/27
-3
L
L
U
01/03
-1
L
W
O
09/12
14
W
W
U
09/19
10
W
W
U
09/26
26
W
W
U
10/03
-16
L
L
U
10/10
-8
L
L
O
10/17
-10
L
L
O
CLE logo

Browns

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
-7
L
L
U
01/03
2
W
L
O
01/10
11
W
W
O
01/17
-5
L
W
U
09/12
-4
L
W
O
09/19
10
W
L
O
09/26
20
W
W
U
10/03
7
W
W
U
10/10
-5
L
L
O
10/17
-23
L
L
O