DENBroncos
0-2
26
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
85°F
6 mph
7
TBBuccaneers
2-0
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
85°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
14
6
0
6
26
Buccaneers
0
7
0
0
7
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
352
223
Total Plays
64
56
Yards / Play
5.5
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.33
Passing Yards
--
132
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
25/33(76%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.0
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.70
Rushing Yards
136
91
Rush Attempts
28
16
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
31%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.47
-11.00
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-31
Sack EPA
--
-11.40
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
35
19
Penalty EPA
-4.14
-3.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+169
Home nfelo
1,520
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+63.6
Base HFA
+46.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+16.8
Net QB Adjustment
+23.7
Home QB Adjustment
+3.5
Away QB Adjustment
-20.2
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
-20.2
Value
Ptile
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
17
Yards / Game
22
19
Passing Yards / Game
27
25
Rushing Yards / Game
17
3
EPA
EPA / Play
12
18
EPA / Pass
16
22
EPA / Rush
15
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
18
Interceptions / Game
15
29
Fumbles / Game
12
13
Turnover EPA / Game
25
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
15
4th Down Efficiency
9
24
RZ Efficiency
8
7
Buccaneers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
3
Yards / Game
3
10
Passing Yards / Game
8
30
Rushing Yards / Game
5
5
EPA
EPA / Play
5
3
EPA / Pass
4
2
EPA / Rush
7
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
29
Interceptions / Game
24
11
Fumbles / Game
19
13
Turnover EPA / Game
14
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
13
4th Down Efficiency
8
15
RZ Efficiency
4
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U