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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ buccaneers week 4, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DEN logo
DENBroncos
3-0
27
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
7 mph
7
TBBuccaneers
1-2
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
10
3
7
27
Buccaneers
7
0
0
0
7

Spread

DEN logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
307
215
Total Plays
67
66
Yards / Play
4.6
3.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.35
Passing Yards
218
143
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
17/35(49%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.33
-0.46
Rushing Yards
89
72
Rush Attempts
32
26
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
23%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-14.23
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-20
-36
Sack EPA
-3.67
-7.22
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
88
69
Penalty EPA
-10.29
-7.55

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-128
Home nfelo
1,437
Away nfelo
1,620
Home Field
+37.2
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-20.8
Net QB Adjustment
+18.5
Home QB Adjustment
+5.5
Away QB Adjustment
-13.0
Market Regression
-11.2
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

T. Siemian headshot

T. Siemian

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.0
Value
Ptile
09/08
-2.8
27
09/18
-0.6
44
09/25
7.5
91
J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
Value
Ptile
11/22
7.1
91
11/29
-4.0
21
12/06
1.8
63
12/13
-2.3
34
12/17
3.8
78
12/27
-0.2
49
01/03
0.4
52
09/11
6.6
88
09/18
-10.7
2
09/25
5.9
86

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Broncos logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
15
Yards / Game
27
22
Passing Yards / Game
19
20
Rushing Yards / Game
27
22

EPA

EPA / Play
25
12
EPA / Pass
23
10
EPA / Rush
30
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
16
Interceptions / Game
12
4
Fumbles / Game
31
12
Turnover EPA / Game
18
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
11
31
RZ Efficiency
27
24
Buccaneers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Buccaneers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
18
3
Yards / Game
18
4
Passing Yards / Game
13
5
Rushing Yards / Game
25
28

EPA

EPA / Play
18
1
EPA / Pass
9
1
EPA / Rush
28
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
9
Interceptions / Game
27
14
Fumbles / Game
25
2
Turnover EPA / Game
12
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
5
4th Down Efficiency
22
8
RZ Efficiency
21
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
-3
L
L
U
12/20
-7
L
W
O
12/28
3
W
L
U
01/03
7
W
L
O
01/17
7
W
P
U
01/24
2
W
W
U
02/07
14
W
W
U
09/08
1
W
W
O
09/18
14
W
W
O
09/25
12
W
W
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
28
W
W
O
11/29
-13
L
L
U
12/06
4
W
W
U
12/13
-7
L
L
U
12/17
-8
L
L
O
12/27
-5
L
L
O
01/03
-28
L
L
O
09/11
7
W
W
O
09/18
-33
L
L
U
09/25
-5
L
L
O