DENBroncos
3-0
27
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
7 mph
7
TBBuccaneers
1-2
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
10
3
7
27
Buccaneers
7
0
0
0
7
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
307
215
Total Plays
67
66
Yards / Play
4.6
3.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.35
Passing Yards
218
143
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
17/35(49%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.33
-0.46
Rushing Yards
89
72
Rush Attempts
32
26
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
23%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-14.23
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-20
-36
Sack EPA
-3.67
-7.22
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
88
69
Penalty EPA
-10.29
-7.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model64.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-131
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,624
Home Field
+36.8
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-20.5
Net QB Adjustment
+18.5
Home QB Adjustment
+5.5
Away QB Adjustment
-13.0
Market Regression
-7.5
Final Difference
-99.8
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.0
Value
Ptile
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
15
Yards / Game
27
22
Passing Yards / Game
19
20
Rushing Yards / Game
27
22
EPA
EPA / Play
25
12
EPA / Pass
23
10
EPA / Rush
30
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
16
Interceptions / Game
12
4
Fumbles / Game
31
12
Turnover EPA / Game
18
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
11
31
RZ Efficiency
27
24
Buccaneers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
3
Yards / Game
18
4
Passing Yards / Game
13
5
Rushing Yards / Game
25
28
EPA
EPA / Play
18
1
EPA / Pass
9
1
EPA / Rush
28
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
9
Interceptions / Game
27
14
Fumbles / Game
25
2
Turnover EPA / Game
12
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
5
4th Down Efficiency
22
8
RZ Efficiency
21
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U