DENBroncos
2-3
35
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
78°F
7 mph
24
LACChargers
3-2
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
78°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
8
15
23
Chargers
10
8
0
0
18
Spread
+0
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
307
Total Plays
52
72
Yards / Play
7.0
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.24
Passing Yards
--
217
Comp/Att
24/30(80%)
25/41(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.41
-0.45
Rushing Yards
56
90
Rush Attempts
22
27
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
25%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
7
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-14.85
-23.46
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
--
-15.58
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
81
64
Penalty EPA
-7.42
-4.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
N/A
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model49.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+27
Home nfelo
1,559
Away nfelo
1,539
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-38.6
Home QB Adjustment
-4.9
Away QB Adjustment
+33.7
Market Regression
-37.1
Final Difference
5.5
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+33.7
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
15
Yards / Game
4
9
Passing Yards / Game
29
12
Rushing Yards / Game
15
5
EPA
EPA / Play
4
9
EPA / Pass
2
13
EPA / Rush
26
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
3
Interceptions / Game
8
18
Fumbles / Game
27
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
29
4th Down Efficiency
3
8
RZ Efficiency
4
32
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
4
Yards / Game
31
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
19
Rushing Yards / Game
28
4
EPA
EPA / Play
19
3
EPA / Pass
20
6
EPA / Rush
28
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
14
14
Fumbles / Game
23
21
Turnover EPA / Game
18
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
1
4th Down Efficiency
14
5
RZ Efficiency
26
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chargers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U