DENBroncos
2-3
16
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
019
LACChargers
3-2
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Broncos
10
3
0
3
0
16
Chargers
0
10
3
3
3
19
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
258
297
Total Plays
55
83
Yards / Play
4.7
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.06
Passing Yards
160
224
Comp/Att
15/28(54%)
37/57(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
3.9
EPA / Pass
-0.24
-0.28
Rushing Yards
98
73
Rush Attempts
23
24
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
24
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
7
3rd Down %
29%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
11
3rd Down Attempts
14
22
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+0.10
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-28
-14
Sack EPA
-7.68
-3.67
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
151
89
Penalty EPA
-14.78
-10.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+116
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+42.0
Base HFA
+39.0
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+16.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.2
Away QB Adjustment
-9.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-9.5
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
23
Yards / Game
21
20
Passing Yards / Game
9
7
Rushing Yards / Game
21
27
EPA
EPA / Play
28
14
EPA / Pass
29
9
EPA / Rush
27
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
16
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
12
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
11
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
14
12
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
12
Yards / Game
8
8
Passing Yards / Game
5
9
Rushing Yards / Game
30
10
EPA
EPA / Play
18
13
EPA / Pass
12
7
EPA / Rush
17
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
6
11
Fumbles / Game
27
20
Turnover EPA / Game
29
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
2
4th Down Efficiency
15
30
RZ Efficiency
18
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U