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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ chargers week 6, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DEN logo
DENBroncos
2-3
16
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
19
LACChargers
3-2
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Broncos
10
3
0
3
0
16
Chargers
0
10
3
3
3
19

Spread

DEN logo
+4

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
258
297
Total Plays
55
83
Yards / Play
4.7
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.06
Passing Yards
160
224
Comp/Att
15/28(54%)
37/57(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
3.9
EPA / Pass
-0.24
-0.28
Rushing Yards
98
73
Rush Attempts
23
24
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
13
24
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
7
3rd Down %
29%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
11
3rd Down Attempts
14
22
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+0.10
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-28
-14
Sack EPA
-7.68
-3.67
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
151
89
Penalty EPA
-14.78
-10.77

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+117
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+42.0
Base HFA
+39.0
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+16.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.2
Away QB Adjustment
-9.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.5
Value
Ptile
12/12
3.1
76
12/21
-7.6
9
12/26
-0.9
46
01/02
5.4
85
01/09
2.7
73
09/12
3.6
79
09/18
-7.1
8
09/25
-4.7
19
10/02
3.2
77
10/06
-7.5
8
J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.2
Value
Ptile
12/12
5.6
86
12/16
2.3
69
12/26
2.0
68
01/02
4.5
82
01/09
-0.5
49
09/11
7.0
91
09/15
3.8
80
09/25
-0.9
46
10/02
5.6
87
10/09
1.9
68

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
23
Yards / Game
21
20
Passing Yards / Game
9
7
Rushing Yards / Game
21
27

EPA

EPA / Play
28
14
EPA / Pass
29
9
EPA / Rush
27
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
16
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
12
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
11
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
14
12
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
12
12
Yards / Game
8
8
Passing Yards / Game
5
9
Rushing Yards / Game
30
10

EPA

EPA / Play
18
13
EPA / Pass
12
7
EPA / Rush
17
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
6
11
Fumbles / Game
27
20
Turnover EPA / Game
29
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
2
4th Down Efficiency
15
30
RZ Efficiency
18
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/12
28
W
W
O
12/19
-5
L
L
U
12/26
-4
L
L
U
01/02
-21
L
L
O
01/08
-4
L
W
O
09/12
-1
L
L
U
09/18
7
W
L
U
09/25
1
W
W
U
10/02
-9
L
L
O
10/06
-3
L
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/12
16
W
W
O
12/16
-6
L
L
O
12/26
-12
L
L
O
01/02
21
W
W
O
01/09
-3
L
L
O
09/11
5
W
W
U
09/15
-3
L
W
U
09/25
-28
L
L
O
10/02
10
W
W
O
10/09
2
W
W
O