DENBroncos
3-2
0
TBD
StubHub Center
90°F
4 mph
21
LACChargers
2-4
TBD
StubHub Center
90°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
0
0
0
Chargers
1
7
0
7
15
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
251
242
Total Plays
59
55
Yards / Play
4.3
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.51
-0.12
Passing Yards
182
162
Comp/Att
25/35(71%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.57
+0.03
Rushing Yards
69
80
Rush Attempts
19
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
14
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
21%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.88
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-25
-21
Sack EPA
-9.14
-2.93
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
68
81
Penalty EPA
-5.49
-9.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+7
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+31.3
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
-25.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.4
Home QB Adjustment
+5.3
Away QB Adjustment
-2.1
Market Regression
-31.3
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
1
Yards / Game
18
14
Passing Yards / Game
19
18
Rushing Yards / Game
12
31
EPA
EPA / Play
29
10
EPA / Pass
31
3
EPA / Rush
16
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
32
Interceptions / Game
31
5
Fumbles / Game
23
14
Turnover EPA / Game
2
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
19
4th Down Efficiency
26
5
RZ Efficiency
32
1
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
22
Yards / Game
5
1
Passing Yards / Game
16
10
Rushing Yards / Game
24
5
EPA
EPA / Play
8
9
EPA / Pass
4
16
EPA / Rush
21
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
3
Interceptions / Game
10
25
Fumbles / Game
1
14
Turnover EPA / Game
30
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
2
4th Down Efficiency
18
7
RZ Efficiency
27
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U