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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ chargers week 7, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
3-2
0
TBD
StubHub Center
90°F
4 mph
21
LACChargers
2-4
LAC logo
TBD
StubHub Center
90°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
0
0
0
Chargers
1
7
0
7
15

Spread

LAC logo
+1

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
251
242
Total Plays
59
55
Yards / Play
4.3
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.51
-0.12
Passing Yards
182
162
Comp/Att
25/35(71%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.57
+0.03
Rushing Yards
69
80
Rush Attempts
19
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
12
14
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
21%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.88
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-25
-21
Sack EPA
-9.14
-2.93
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
68
81
Penalty EPA
-5.49
-9.74

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+10
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,524
Home Field
+31.7
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.4
Home QB Adjustment
+5.3
Away QB Adjustment
-2.1
Market Regression
-31.3
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

T. Siemian headshot

T. Siemian

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
Value
Ptile
11/27
3.6
75
12/11
2.6
69
12/18
-4.3
17
12/25
-7.2
7
01/01
-0.0
48
09/11
-0.5
48
09/17
3.5
78
09/24
-5.1
19
10/01
-5.1
19
10/15
-2.6
35
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
Value
Ptile
12/11
-9.2
4
12/18
-3.3
25
12/24
0.1
49
01/01
0.4
52
09/11
2.6
71
09/17
6.3
88
09/24
-8.9
5
10/01
3.3
76
10/08
0.5
55
10/15
2.1
67

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
1
Yards / Game
18
14
Passing Yards / Game
19
18
Rushing Yards / Game
12
31

EPA

EPA / Play
29
10
EPA / Pass
31
3
EPA / Rush
16
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
32
Interceptions / Game
31
5
Fumbles / Game
23
14
Turnover EPA / Game
2
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
19
4th Down Efficiency
26
5
RZ Efficiency
32
1
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
13
22
Yards / Game
5
1
Passing Yards / Game
16
10
Rushing Yards / Game
24
5

EPA

EPA / Play
8
9
EPA / Pass
4
16
EPA / Rush
21
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
3
Interceptions / Game
10
25
Fumbles / Game
1
14
Turnover EPA / Game
30
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
2
4th Down Efficiency
18
7
RZ Efficiency
27
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
10
W
W
U
12/11
-3
L
L
U
12/18
-13
L
L
U
12/25
-23
L
L
O
01/01
18
W
W
U
09/11
3
W
P
O
09/17
25
W
W
O
09/24
-10
L
L
O
10/01
6
W
W
U
10/15
-13
L
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-12
L
L
U
12/18
-3
L
L
U
12/24
-3
L
L
U
01/01
-10
L
L
O
09/11
-3
L
P
O
09/17
-2
L
L
U
09/24
-14
L
L
U
10/01
-2
L
L
O
10/08
5
W
W
O
10/15
1
W
W
U