DENBroncos
7-1
28
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
78°F
6 mph
20
LACChargers
4-4
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
78°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
14
7
0
28
Chargers
0
6
7
7
20
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
56
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
397
329
Total Plays
60
68
Yards / Play
6.6
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.06
Passing Yards
313
198
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.41
+0.17
Rushing Yards
84
131
Rush Attempts
22
35
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
17
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
38%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
8
16
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.63
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-17
-20
Sack EPA
-6.47
-4.26
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
-4.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-209
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,667
Home Field
-14.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.3
Home QB Adjustment
+28.3
Away QB Adjustment
+28.6
Market Regression
-15.6
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+28.6
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+28.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
9
Yards / Game
1
23
Passing Yards / Game
24
20
Rushing Yards / Game
16
14
EPA
EPA / Play
1
30
EPA / Pass
1
22
EPA / Rush
19
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
28
Interceptions / Game
7
24
Fumbles / Game
25
19
Turnover EPA / Game
15
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
21
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
2
24
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
22
Yards / Game
8
18
Passing Yards / Game
2
23
Rushing Yards / Game
13
5
EPA
EPA / Play
2
23
EPA / Pass
2
23
EPA / Rush
10
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
32
Interceptions / Game
5
18
Fumbles / Game
7
8
Turnover EPA / Game
27
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
1
4
RZ Efficiency
21
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
9-0-1
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U