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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ chargers week 10, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
7-1
28
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
78°F
6 mph
20
LACChargers
4-4
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
78°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
14
7
0
28
Chargers
0
6
7
7
20

Spread

DEN logo
-7

Total

UNDER
56

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
397
329
Total Plays
60
68
Yards / Play
6.6
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.06
Passing Yards
313
198
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.41
+0.17
Rushing Yards
84
131
Rush Attempts
22
35
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
17
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
38%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
8
16
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.63
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-17
-20
Sack EPA
-6.47
-4.26
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
-4.35

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-206
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,663
Home Field
-14.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.3
Home QB Adjustment
+28.3
Away QB Adjustment
+28.6
Market Regression
-15.6
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+28.6
Value
Ptile
12/30
9.6
96
01/12
1.4
59
09/05
14.7
100
09/15
6.3
88
09/23
11.5
97
09/29
10.7
96
10/06
13.2
99
10/13
2.9
70
10/20
3.0
71
10/27
3.0
71
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+28.3
Value
Ptile
12/23
-2.7
32
12/30
-0.7
45
09/09
1.7
62
09/15
12.6
98
09/22
1.8
63
09/29
10.9
96
10/06
2.7
69
10/14
1.3
60
10/20
4.8
83
11/03
3.0
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
9
Yards / Game
1
23
Passing Yards / Game
24
20
Rushing Yards / Game
16
14

EPA

EPA / Play
1
30
EPA / Pass
1
22
EPA / Rush
19
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
28
Interceptions / Game
7
24
Fumbles / Game
25
19
Turnover EPA / Game
15
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
21
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
2
24
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
14
22
Yards / Game
8
18
Passing Yards / Game
2
23
Rushing Yards / Game
13
5

EPA

EPA / Play
2
23
EPA / Pass
2
23
EPA / Rush
10
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
32
Interceptions / Game
5
18
Fumbles / Game
7
8
Turnover EPA / Game
27
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
1
4
RZ Efficiency
21
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
9-0-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
35
W
W
P
01/12
-3
L
L
O
09/05
22
W
W
O
09/15
18
W
W
O
09/23
16
W
P
O
09/29
32
W
W
O
10/06
3
W
L
O
10/13
16
W
L
O
10/20
-6
L
L
O
10/27
24
W
W
O
LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
10
W
W
O
12/30
3
W
L
O
09/09
-3
L
W
O
09/15
3
W
W
O
09/22
-3
L
P
U
09/29
9
W
W
O
10/06
-10
L
L
U
10/14
10
W
W
U
10/20
18
W
W
U
11/03
-6
L
L
O