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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ chargers week 11, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DEN logo
DENBroncos
3-6
23
TBD
StubHub Center
69°F
4 mph
22
LACChargers
7-2
LAC logo
TBD
StubHub Center
69°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
7
9
23
Chargers
6
7
6
3
22

Spread

DEN logo
+7

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
325
479
Total Plays
53
72
Yards / Play
6.1
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.06
Passing Yards
--
384
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
28/43(65%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.33
Rushing Yards
108
95
Rush Attempts
20
26
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
7
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
30%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.85
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-1.41
Penalties
7
14
Penalty Yards
43
120
Penalty EPA
-5.44
-8.90

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model70.5%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+120
Home nfelo
1,594
Away nfelo
1,450
Home Field
-23.8
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
-26.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.4
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-1.2
Home QB Adjustment
+7.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
151.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.6
Value
Ptile
01/21
-1.5
42
09/09
1.8
60
09/16
-1.7
35
09/23
-4.5
20
10/01
-6.2
12
10/07
2.9
69
10/14
1.8
60
10/18
-4.0
22
10/28
-1.8
34
11/04
1.3
56
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
Value
Ptile
12/31
10.5
98
09/09
8.4
92
09/16
6.3
86
09/23
2.5
67
09/30
1.2
55
10/07
6.4
87
10/14
-1.2
38
10/21
4.1
75
11/04
0.1
47
11/11
-0.4
43

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
11
Yards / Game
19
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
10

EPA

EPA / Play
22
9
EPA / Pass
26
8
EPA / Rush
8
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
25
Interceptions / Game
23
18
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
21
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
19
4th Down Efficiency
10
23
RZ Efficiency
18
9
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
6
12
Yards / Game
13
22
Passing Yards / Game
5
28
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22

EPA

EPA / Play
7
10
EPA / Pass
3
17
EPA / Rush
9
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
23
Interceptions / Game
11
3
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
26
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
17
4th Down Efficiency
1
13
RZ Efficiency
9
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
-3
L
L
O
09/09
3
W
P
O
09/16
1
W
L
U
09/23
-13
L
L
U
10/01
-4
L
L
U
10/07
-18
L
L
O
10/14
-3
L
W
U
10/18
35
W
W
O
10/28
-7
L
W
P
11/04
-2
L
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
20
W
W
U
09/09
-10
L
L
O
09/16
11
W
W
O
09/23
-12
L
L
O
09/30
2
W
L
O
10/07
16
W
W
U
10/14
24
W
W
O
10/21
1
W
L
U
11/04
8
W
W
U
11/11
14
W
W
U