DENBroncos
3-6
23
TBD
StubHub Center
69°F
4 mph
22
LACChargers
7-2
TBD
StubHub Center
69°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
7
9
23
Chargers
6
7
6
3
22
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
479
Total Plays
53
72
Yards / Play
6.1
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.06
Passing Yards
--
384
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
28/43(65%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.33
Rushing Yards
108
95
Rush Attempts
20
26
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
7
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
30%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.85
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-1.41
Penalties
7
14
Penalty Yards
43
120
Penalty EPA
-5.44
-8.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model70.4%
Spread Pick
Broncos+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+117
Home nfelo
1,591
Away nfelo
1,449
Home Field
-23.5
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
-26.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.8
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-1.2
Home QB Adjustment
+7.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
150.3
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.6
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
11
Yards / Game
19
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
10
EPA
EPA / Play
22
9
EPA / Pass
26
8
EPA / Rush
8
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
25
Interceptions / Game
23
18
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
21
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
19
4th Down Efficiency
10
23
RZ Efficiency
18
9
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
12
Yards / Game
13
22
Passing Yards / Game
5
28
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22
EPA
EPA / Play
7
10
EPA / Pass
3
17
EPA / Rush
9
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
23
Interceptions / Game
11
3
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
26
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
17
4th Down Efficiency
1
13
RZ Efficiency
9
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Chargers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U