DENBroncos
5-5
16
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
84°F
013
LACChargers
4-6
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
84°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Broncos
0
7
3
3
3
16
Chargers
3
7
3
0
0
13
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
344
Total Plays
70
75
Yards / Play
5.0
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.09
Passing Yards
141
159
Comp/Att
9/18(50%)
19/36(53%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.15
Rushing Yards
208
185
Rush Attempts
51
36
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-2
-29
Sack EPA
-0.87
-4.08
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
63
30
Penalty EPA
-7.63
-2.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+141
Home nfelo
1,562
Away nfelo
1,428
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-27.5
Home QB Adjustment
-11.6
Away QB Adjustment
+15.9
Market Regression
-39.5
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
T. Tebow
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
23
Yards / Game
20
16
Passing Yards / Game
32
10
Rushing Yards / Game
1
20
EPA
EPA / Play
23
29
EPA / Pass
27
28
EPA / Rush
10
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
5
15
Fumbles / Game
32
31
Turnover EPA / Game
9
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
32
4th Down Efficiency
28
2
RZ Efficiency
26
26
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
26
Yards / Game
6
23
Passing Yards / Game
16
24
Rushing Yards / Game
16
23
EPA
EPA / Play
4
22
EPA / Pass
4
24
EPA / Rush
12
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
11
Interceptions / Game
25
27
Fumbles / Game
12
22
Turnover EPA / Game
7
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
8
4th Down Efficiency
20
6
RZ Efficiency
10
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U