DENBroncos
9-2
17
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
78°F
4 mph
3
LACChargers
3-8
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
78°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
8
3
0
0
11
Chargers
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
293
272
Total Plays
66
62
Yards / Play
4.4
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.44
Passing Yards
159
179
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
18/35(51%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.48
Rushing Yards
134
93
Rush Attempts
39
23
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
15
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.55
-15.91
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-23
Sack EPA
-1.73
-6.53
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
18
72
Penalty EPA
-3.19
-8.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model67.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-93
Home nfelo
1,434
Away nfelo
1,627
Home Field
+22.4
Base HFA
+60.6
Divisional Adj
-27.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.8
Net QB Adjustment
+77.5
Home QB Adjustment
+20.9
Away QB Adjustment
-56.6
Market Regression
-16.3
Final Difference
-125.4
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-56.6
Value
Ptile
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+20.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
21
Yards / Game
21
21
Passing Yards / Game
21
17
Rushing Yards / Game
17
27
EPA
EPA / Play
26
30
EPA / Pass
27
19
EPA / Rush
27
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
13
Interceptions / Game
30
20
Fumbles / Game
19
15
Turnover EPA / Game
10
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
13
4th Down Efficiency
22
32
RZ Efficiency
28
7
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
4
Yards / Game
7
2
Passing Yards / Game
1
12
Rushing Yards / Game
30
1
EPA
EPA / Play
18
1
EPA / Pass
11
1
EPA / Rush
31
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
16
13
Fumbles / Game
21
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
2
4th Down Efficiency
29
8
RZ Efficiency
7
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Chargers
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U