DENBroncos
6-6
24
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
07
LACChargers
5-7
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
3
7
7
24
Chargers
0
0
0
7
7
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
283
Total Plays
66
67
Yards / Play
4.9
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.47
Passing Yards
216
207
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
22/42(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.64
Rushing Yards
106
76
Rush Attempts
31
19
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
47%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
8
--
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.49
-9.97
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-8
-68
Sack EPA
-3.66
-14.90
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
26
10
Penalty EPA
-3.02
-3.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+100
Home nfelo
1,520
Away nfelo
1,464
Home Field
+40.7
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
-20.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.9
Away QB Adjustment
+2.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
23
Yards / Game
26
28
Passing Yards / Game
13
21
Rushing Yards / Game
19
16
EPA
EPA / Play
20
20
EPA / Pass
20
24
EPA / Rush
19
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
12
Interceptions / Game
4
25
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
15
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
15
4th Down Efficiency
4
28
RZ Efficiency
19
12
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
27
Yards / Game
18
29
Passing Yards / Game
17
14
Rushing Yards / Game
24
30
EPA
EPA / Play
22
24
EPA / Pass
18
26
EPA / Rush
31
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
6
Interceptions / Game
3
19
Fumbles / Game
27
1
Turnover EPA / Game
16
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
2
4th Down Efficiency
23
10
RZ Efficiency
13
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
1-9
O/U